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Appearances & Quotes in the Media
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Appearances


UPCOMING: TBA

 

RECENT:

Fox Business Daytime
Date: Wednesday, December 16th 2009
Time: 10:00 AM ET

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Fox Business Daytime
Date: Tuesday, November 10th 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, July 15th 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report+
Date: Wednesday, July 8th 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, July 1st 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, June 17th 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, June 10th 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, June 3rd 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, May 27th 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, May 20th 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, May 13th 2009
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CNBC's Fast Money Halftime Report
Date: Wednesday, May 6th 2009
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CFA Society Of Austin
CFA Austin Luncheon
April 3, 2009 @ 12:00 PM
The University of Texas Club

2108 Robert Dedman Dr
Austin, TX 78712

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FOX Business
March 25, 2009 @ 11:00 AM ET

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CNBC's Closing Bell
March 13, 2009 @ 3:45 PM ET

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CNBC's Fast Money
February 25, 2009 @ 5:00 PM ET

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CFA Society Of Houston
CFA Houston Luncheon
November 12, 2008 @ 12:30 PM
The Briar Club

2603 Timmons
Houston, TX 77027

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Quotes in the Media

Asbury Research Director of Research John Kosar is a sought-after commentator for a number of broadcast, online and print publications.

2010

NEW!  Reuters     (January 21, 2010)
Wall St's rout seen as onset of correction
With major indexes breaching key technical support levels on Wednesday, market technicians said Wall Street was likely to see the onset of a long-anticipated correction following a 70 percent run-up in the benchmark S&P 500 from March 2009.  "This is the beginning of a correction. It's been brewing for months," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "There's more risk on the downside than opportunity on the upside here until we get a correction."  According to Kosar, the latest downdraft could potentially drive the S&P 500 to 1,100-1,084, a level which should potentially spur new buying. But if the buying failed to materialize, the index could then head down 10 percent or more from the recent high.  "The market is overextended by almost every metric that we look at, which makes it vulnerable to some kind of a pullback, and more than one that will last two days," added Kosar.

 

2009

Reuters     (December 9, 2009)
Dollar relationship with risk assets on the rocks
Markets have been here before. Over the past five months, the dollar has benefited from stronger figures on several occasions, only to return quickly to its more familiar pattern of falling on good economic news.  John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago, said he does not anticipate a fundamental shift in the relationship until the dollar index sees a sustained bounce above its 50-day moving average.  The dollar index closed above this average on Friday for the first time since April. Support at this level would suggest revaluation of the dollar.  "The dollar index would have to rise above its 50-day moving average to indicate that a near-term bottom is in place. Unless that happens, the advance in U.S. equity prices is likely to continue," Kosar said.

Barron's Online     (December 2, 2009)
Stock and Bond Investors See Different Markets Ahead
Over the past decade, stock and bond prices have generally moved in opposite directions, meaning that share prices and bond yields have moved together, both higher and lower. Both share prices and yields set major bottoms in mid-2003 and major tops in mid-2007, give or take a few months. And while most major stock indexes bottomed again in March 2009, the bigger stocks on the Nasdaq bottomed in November 2008 -- with bond yields. This important relationship held true this year until June, when bond yields peaked. One month later, as yields moved lower, stocks began their current leg up. John Kosar, director of research at AsburyResearch.com, said that the 70% rally in the stock market since March tells us that stocks think the economy looks promising. However, the decline in bond yields since the summer tells us that bonds do not agree.

The Wall Street Journal Online (November 3, 2009)
Amid Buffett Bump in Transports, SOX Moves Lower
Warren Buffett’s purchase of Burlington Northern Santa Fe is giving the Dow Jones Transportation index a fillip. But adherents of Dow Theory — short version, that transports take what industrials make — like Raymond James’ Jeffrey Saut say that today’s spike isn’t really telling us much on the future direction for stocks.  Perhaps more telling is the action we’re seeing in the The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, or SOX, which is down about 1.5%. Within the tech universe itself, economically sensitive semiconductors tend lead the pack. And since many look for stock market leadership from the broader tech-stock area, technicians argue that it makes sense to watch the SOX for hints about where the markets might go next.  As we speak, the SOX is below 293. In a research note last week technician John Kosar of Asbury Research said that if the SOX couldn’t hold above 300, it’ll likely trade down to about 275. Some technicians would look at such a move as bad news for the broader markets.

The Wall Street Journal Online (October 29, 2009)
SOX Off: The Tech Leader Flashing Yellow?
The Nasdaq 100 leads the broader stock markets. And within the tech universe itself, economically sensitive semiconductors tend lead the pack. If that’s true, it would make sense to watch the The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index for a sense of where the markets might go next.  Often called by its ticker symbol, the SOX isn’t portending rosy things for investors. Asbury Research put out a note on the topic yesterday.  "We look for emerging changes in direction in the SOX as a potential leading indication of a directional change in the U.S. broad market … positive divergence by the SOX actually led the March 6th bottom in the SPX and both indexes rose from there … Now we may have the inverse situation to what took place in February-March emerging on the charts. This is a negative divergence between the SOX and SPX — and opposite to what happened back in February-March."  Yesterday Asbury wrote that a close below 305 would confirm that the SOX had topped out in the near-term, adding “we are waiting for a close through 301 to further confirm that a top is in place at 337.”  The SOX closed Wednesday at 300.78.

Dow Jones Newswires (October 23, 2009)
Wall St falls on housing data, stimulus jitters
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has led the tech sector, which in turn has led the market, for much of this year's rally. It was an especially good indicator of the market's low point back in March; the SOX hit its lowest point this year at 188.49 on March 2, exactly one week before the S&P 500 sunk to its 12 1/2-year low of 676.53. From those lows, the SOX has rallied 73% as of Thursday's close, while the S&P 500 has jumped 62%. The relationship has technicians like John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research, closely watching the SOX for indications of where the rest of the stock market may next lurch. He refers to the SOX as a canary in a coal mine.  Right now, it's in limbo. The SOX, which tracks the performance of semiconductor makers and equipment manufacturers, has been dancing between a support level of 305 and resistance level of 337 for the past month, and until it breaks through one level or another, it's hard to tell which way the broader market may go. But once it does, the broader market is likely to follow.  The connection likely exists "because the market collectively is looking for prices to go higher so they want to be on the fastest horses when that happens, and oftentimes, that is technology," Kosar said.  Kosar noted there are many other factors investors should keep in mind, including volume, sentiment and volatility, but he has found that the SOX's performance tends to be one of the initial signs of where stocks are headed. Once it breaks through a level of support or resistance, "then you're taking the market's temperature again," he said.

Reuters (September 24, 2009)
Wall St falls on housing data, stimulus jitters
The losses put the benchmark S&P 500, which has rallied nearly 60 percent in six months from 12-year lows, on track for its worst two-day decline in three weeks as investors pummeled stocks across the board.  All 10 S&P 500 sectors fell, led by energy, materials, financials and industrials.  "The housing number today probably threw some gasoline on the fire," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "It's not only that the recovery is fragile, but the other important story is just how far the market has come, so fast. The Fed statement was a little bit sobering."

CNN Money (September 15, 2009)
The planes, trains and automobiles rally
The upbeat outlook from FedEx could be a good omen for the broader economy since it may mean that consumers and businesses are becoming more willing to loosen up their purse strings.  John Kosar, director of research with Asbury Research in Chicago, said there are signs that this may be happening in other areas of the financial markets as well. "A lot of people look at copper as an economic barometer since rising prices could mean that more goods are being made. The performance of the transports is letting you know if goods are being shipped. So that's why they have significance and meaning," he said. The better-than-expected retail sales for August also appears to confirm that there is a nascent consumer recovery.

CNN Money (August 28, 2009)
Stop The Market Insanity
"There are two ways you can have a correction. Stocks actually go down or they move sideways over time," O'Rourke added. "I think the market is going to go sideways. Investors may sell speculative companies and rotate into more defensive blue chips."  John Kosar, director of research with Asbury Research in Chicago, isn't buying this argument though. He said that if investors start to look more at health care companies and stodgy consumer giants like Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) and Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500), it's probably a sign that they are losing confidence in the possibility of a robust economic recovery.  "If people start pouring into health care and other defensive sectors, they are doing it for a reason. They are looking for a place to hide," he said.  Kosar said many big institutional investors have been buying stocks because they have to chase momentum. In other words, they are fearful of what their returns will look like if they sit the rally out and may not be convinced that a sustained rebound is in the cards. So if there is a sell-off, it could be painful. "A lot of money managers have been buying stocks not because they are in love with the market and think that things are hunky-dory and we're going back to the 1990s," Kosar said. "All that means is when the inevitable sell-off comes, you will get a lot of people looking for the door at the same time."

The Wall Street Journal Market Beat (August 20, 2009)
S&P Tests Resistance Above 1000 Again! Can it Hold the Line?
Whatever the reason, investors would do well to watch closely when the S&P reaches 1000 and above. “This is an inflection point and the market has to decide whether the economy is strong enough to support stocks making another leg higher from here,” said John Kosar, director of research as Asbury Research.

The Wall Street Journal Market Beat (August 20, 2009)
Pump up the Volume: We Know it’s August, But C’mon.
Market seers say they’re keeping a close eye on evaporating volume, which — when triangulated with other market metrics — can be a bearish signal. “Low volume when prices have been generally going higher, to me that’s a red flag,” said John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research. He’s quick to stress that you shouldn’t necessarily see low volume as the time to sell out of your positions and stuff cash into your couch cushions. “It’s just a near term indication that has negative implications.”

The Guardian UK (July 29, 2009)
Wall St correction looms large as rally frays
The other worrying signals about the stock market's short-term outlook include a jump in the percentage of New York Stock Exchange stocks trading above their 200-day moving average to the highest levels since February 2007.  Through Friday, 85 percent of NYSE stocks were above their 200-day averages, according to John Kosar, market technician at Asbury Research in Chicago. That is traditionally a sign of the market's relative strength, but it could also invite the bears to try to dislodge the bulls.  "These data suggest that U.S. equity prices are unlikely to continue appreciably higher from here without at least a one-to-two-month corrective decline first," said Kosar.  For now, though, the Wall Street adage -- "the trend is your friend" -- might just embolden the bulls a bit longer. The question is for how long?

Reuters USA (July 8, 2009)
Long-awaited correction confronts Wall Street
For two months U.S. equities have defied expectations for a correction, but charts show that major averages are finally on the cusp of their first significant pullback since the start of the March rally due to worries about economic growth.  "This is a start of a correction," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago.  "The market has decided that for now the October 2007 cyclical downtrend is still in play. It doesn't mean we have to go back under the lows, although that is possible."

Welling @ Weeden (June 26, 2009)
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AcuteObservations:  Asbury Research's Keys To This Week, June 22 2009
"This Week, all of our Near Term factors are in the Negative category except one -- a bullish chart pattern in the PHLX Semiconductor (SOX) Index. However, the SOX must remain above 259 this week for the bullish implications of this pattern to remain valid. On the other hand, near term market momentum turned negative (bearish) in the major U.S. indexes (S&P 500, Dow Industrials, NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000) last week -- which indicates that a near term top is in place in the US stock market at its recent highs. A decline below 259 this week in the SOX would further confirm this top and clear the way for more weakness in the market leading Technology Sector."

Barron's Online (June 17, 2009)
Will Commodity Investors Have Summer Fun?
John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research, found that over the past 30 years, oil prices are exceptionally strong between April and September with May providing the best monthly return. Indeed, this May, crude oil gained a whopping 29%.  However, despite the strong spring and summer performance, the market does tend to take June off. The average loss for the month was 0.2% so it really serves as a rest stop for the bulls. Once June ends, however, the seasonal pattern points to three more months of solid gains.

Fast Money Rapid Recap (June 17, 2009)
Correction On The Horizon?
According to John Kosar of Asbury Research although the DJIA took out its May highs the Transports has not. “That’s a red flag. Something is not right. Often this kind of pattern signals a pullback,” he said on Fast Money's Halftime Report.  Is a correction on the horizon?  Kosar thinks it is.

Fast Money Rapid Recap (May 27, 2009)
BEHIND THE MONEY: Stock Rally in Bond Market's Hands
The fear is that higher yields could snuff out this stock market rally by making it more expensive for the government to borrow, as well as for consumers, whose mortgage rates are pegged to the 10-year Treasury. Also, higher yields could be foreshadowing a troublesome spike in inflation.  However, there is another side to this argument. In the past, higher yields signaled increasing economic activity. In fact, the S&P 500 and the yield on the 10-year Treasury have an 86 percent positive correlation since December 2006, according to John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research and a guest on the

Fast Money Half-Time show today.
Reuters (May 20, 2009)
Treasuries may pop if supply fatigue fades
The U.S. government bond market may be poised for a summer rally after a harsh spring, when it was beaten up by an onslaught of supply.  The Treasuries market has entered the time of year for its most bullish stretch. May, June and July have typically been strong months for bonds, coinciding with a seasonal weakness in stocks, known as "sell in May and go away" in Wall Street parlance.  Going back to 1957, Treasury prices tend to post price gains during this part of the year, according to John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research in Chicago.  "We are looking for a bounce in Treasuries if based purely on seasonals," he said. "These are recurring patterns."

The Chicago Sun Times (May 3, 2009)
College savings plans hit hard
The month just concluded was quite positive for stocks. April was Wall Street's best month in nine years, based on performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 index. It's a favorable sign for the economy as a whole, as stocks usually rally before economic conditions improve.  But the issue now is whether to heed that old adage, "Sell in May and go away." It implies that stocks decline during the summer and don't begin to advance until the stores stock Halloween merchandise. It's not just a convenient excuse to spend the warmest months of the year at the beach instead of on your broker's Web site. Asbury Research, investment trend analysts in Lake in the Hills, said a review of data going back to 1957 supports the maxim.  Asbury found that April is the seasonally strongest month for the S&P 500 over the last 51 years. "May kicks off a five-month period of acute seasonal weakness that runs through September" and includes five of the six weakest months during the year, Asbury reported.

Welling @ Weeden (April 17, 2009)
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Caution Flag: Over-Investment In Tech Sector Signaling Correction
Relative underperformance by this market-leading sector has historically led most every US broad market decline in recent history.  Chart 2 (not shown) below displays the Technology Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) ETF in the upper panel, and our Rydex Technology Ratio in the lower panel. The Rydex Technology Ratio is the total assets invested in the Rydex Technology, Telecom, Electronics and Internet Sector Funds divided by the combined total assets invested in all 18 Rydex Sector Funds. It indicates how much "sector bet money" is being allocated by investors into Technology. The red vertical highlights between both panels show that these investors are at a multi-year over-invested extreme on Technology that has previously either coincided with or led most of the important peaks in the XLK since 2003.

The Wall Street Journal Market Beat (April 10, 2009)
The Long and Short Of It
So what’s an active investor to do? Strategists say that at times like this there’s a need to combine long and short positions, if only to protect oneself against dramatic shifts in the market. Volatility has receded from its panic-level highs in the fourth quarter, but it remains high, as investors continue to expect significant gyrations in the market.  “It’s not just a matter of stocks being cheap and saying, ‘Let’s buy them and go to Florida,’” says John Kosar, director of research at Asbury Research. “You can’t do that anymore – too many things are unresolved.”  With that in mind, active traders have been increasingly taking positions in strengthening stocks, such as specific financial stocks, while at the same time offsetting those bets with bearish positions in sector-specific exchange-traded funds.

The Wall Street Journal Market Beat (March 23, 2009)
Four at Four: Celebrating the Small Stuff
The trend in copper prices is particularly constructive, as they are considered a strong economic barometer. If they continue to rise, “it will be seen as an intermediate term bullish indication for both the US stock market and the US economy,” write analysts at Asbury Research. They point out, however, that the 200-day moving average in copper prices suggests a bearish trend – and that copper needs to continue to move higher in order to turn that bullish.

The Wall Street Journal Market Beat (March 18, 2009)
Volume Is Better, But Don’t Expect a Frenzy
The market experienced several sessions in the months of October and November 2008 in excess of two billion shares on the Big Board, and while it seemed like a bottom for some time, it did not turn out to be the case.  Days like this “point out an inflection point,” says John Kosar, head of research at Asbury Research in Chicago. “Just because volume spikes, it doesn’t mean everything is cool and then you can buy stocks and go away until next year. It means in the near-term, you might get a bounce, or already have seen one.”

The Associated Press  (March 14, 2009)
There's no formula to figure out if this latest rally will stick. But market analysts are watching closely for signs that the worst might be behind us, and they say some good signs are starting to pop up.  "There are little subtle things that have happened that are good — good enough to see that market is trying to establish a near-term bottom," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "But it's way, way, way too premature to try to make an argument that this is 'The Bottom.' "

Long Beach Press-Telegram   (March 14, 2009)
It's counterintuitive, but Americans should be happy oil prices aren't falling anymore. After massive price drops alongside stocks over the past several months, crude oil has jumped 16 percent in the past three weeks.  Crude oil and copper - which has risen 17 percent in three weeks - tend to be economic barometers, said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago. That's because if the cost of industrial metals and crude oil are rising, it means traders see demand trickling back. Growing demand means increasing industrial production.

Reuters (USA), Javno (Croatia), Planet (Slovania), Handelsblatt (Germany)  (March 12, 2009)
In just three days, the Standard & Poor's 500 is up 11 percent. But for the year so far, the S&P is still down 16.9 percent. Since its October 2007 record high, the index is still off 52 percent.  "It's way too early to say if this is the bottom," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "Over the course of several weeks, you want to see the market build a base. It's more important that the market holds here and maybe even churns here instead of it being something like a rocket shooting up."

2008

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (September 16, 2008)
The bounce in the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index — which hit 33.70 during the session — suggests that there has been a surge in fear amid all of the day’s issues. Previous market trouble usually produced this type of reaction in the VIX, which closed at 30.53 Tuesday. “If we can assume that the market will react to a similar extreme in investor fear in the same way this time, then it would be reasonable to expect the S&P 500 to establish a near term bottom anytime between today and the end of next week,” writes John Kosar, analyst at Asbury Research.

Welling @ Weeden (September 12th, 2008)
Acute Observations: Asbury Research
"This Week, there are still a lot of mixed signals in the market, but they appear to be more of a time frame issue. Combined, they suggest the potential for a bounce higher into mid-month, followed by more weakness into lateQ3 / early Q4 which should lead into a recovery through late 2008 / early 2009. Specifically, near term technically oversold conditions appear to be tying in to this morning's Fannie and Freddie-related spike higher in the U.S. stock market which, according to intra-month seasonal data, could extend into mid month."   continued...

Reuters (September 12th, 2008)
Having failed to reach deals to raise desperately needed capital, Lehman goes into the weekend trying to sell itself or part of its business.  "Investor sentiment is braced for the worst news possible," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "When you have extreme circumstances like we're having now it's very hard to try to figure out what to do next."

Dow Jones Newswires (August 29th, 2008)
For the past couple of weeks, market participants seemed to shrug off big gains in the July consumer and producer price indexes, focusing instead on a slumping economy and tight credit conditions. "This may very well be a trend that has overextended because of credit crisis-related issues," said John Kosar, director of Asbury Research Friday, Kosar said investors couldn't ignore data from the Commerce Department showing a lofty inflation indicator that is closely watched by Fed rate-setters. Core-personal consumption expenditures, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, climbed 2.4% in July compared to the same time a year ago. The Fed's definition of price stability is a 1.5% to 2% range on an annual basis. Kosar noted that July's core-PCE reading is also at the "high extreme" of this year's Fed inflation projections. "There is really no more room for these numbers to rise any further without the Fed having to concede that inflationary pressures are becoming even worse than they thought possible.

The Guardian - UK (August 25th, 2008)
The spread between 10-year Treasury inflation protected securities and conventional Treasury yields fell to 2.16 percent, not far from its multi-year low from a week ago.  "Wall Street either believes there is no inflation problem in the United States, or that the Fed will not address it by raising interest rates," said John Kosar, analyst at Asbury Research.

Welling @ Weeden (August 22nd, 2008)
GuestPerspectives (
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July PPI: Spread Between Inflation, Interest Rates At Extreme

Reuters Business & Finance  (August 20th, 2008)
Financial traders now see just a one-in-three chance that the Fed will raise rates to 2.25 percent by year end from the current 2 percent. As recently as July 23, the market was leaning toward a year-end rate of 2.5 percent.  "The market is clearly much more worried about slowing growth and the credit crisis than it is about any monetary response from the Fed to try to fight inflation," said John Kosar, analyst at Asbury Research in Chicago.

The Wall Street Journal  (August 5th, 2008)
Some analysts believe that the stock market's gains will prove to be short-lived. "The stock market is range-bound but volatile at the moment, which tells you that people really aren't sure what to make of the risks out there," said research director John Kosar, of Asbury Research in Chicago.  Mr. Kosar remains worried about inflation. He points to recent University of Michigan survey data showing strong expectations among consumers that the prices of goods and services will be sharply higher throughout the economy a year from now. He believes such sentiment could easily become self-fulfilling if companies desperate to pass along costs interpret consumers' expectations of price hikes as leeway to actually raise prices.

Dow Jones Newswires  (July 28th, 2008)
It's difficult to argue that long-term rates are going down if the Federal Reserve has "already conceded that inflation is a problem," said John Kosar, director of research for Asbury Research. Kosar noted that Friday's consumer sentiment report from data provider Reuters and the University of Michigan revealed a very lofty one-year inflation forecast, at 5.1% for the second month in a row.  At stake for the Fed, according to Kosar, is its credibility to fight inflation. "The Fed has stated on numerous occasions that it needs to have credibility," Kosar said

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (July 21st, 2008)
The Financial Sector Select SPDRs exchange-traded fund didn’t mark major gains on the day, but its increase was enough to put it at a close of 20.44, the highest closing price for that index since June 26, before falling 15% in the first two weeks of July. Furthermore, the price action in bellwether Goldman Sachs Group Inc. suggests that investors are again seeing the financials as a place to go and not run from — for however long that lasts. Analysts at Asbury Research say the trading in Goldman of late suggested more bearishness, but the shares turned last week. “Failed bearish patterns are pretty rare, but when they occur it indicates that the market has, for whatever reason, aggressively changed its mind on future price direction,” they write. Goldman shares ended the day down 1.1%.

Dow Jones Newswires  (June 26th, 2008)
In their accompanying policy statement, panel members said that "although downside risks to (economic) growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat."    The FOMC also said that "upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased."   "That's the phrase that pays," said John Kosar, director of research for Asbury Research.  The Fed clearly implied that it had "shifted from having an easing bias to a tightening bias," said Kosar.  He played down Thursday's action, which seemed to reflect market expectations that the funds rate won't budge until this fall.   "You're trying to look at a ripple, instead of a wave. Markets go up and down every day," Kosar explained.

Forbes.com  (June 20th, 2008)
ANALYSIS-Technicians see Wall Street on thin ice
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The technical picture of the U.S. stock market is deteriorating fast, putting Wall Street on course to test its March lows in the coming days and it could fall even further.  "I think we are at a near-term inflection point," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "If there's any more bleeding from here I think that will point to a re-test of the first-quarter lows and maybe a breakdown through those lows in the third quarter."

CNN Money   (June 4th, 2008)
"The financials have to participate to a degree if you expect some sort of sustainable rally. Financials are a big chunk of the broader market," said John Kosar, director of research with Asbury Research.   Kosar said one troubling sign is that one of the sector's leaders, Bank of America, has taken a notable turn for the worse. The stock had been mainly trading in a narrow range of between $35 and $40 since March. But it recently dropped below the $35 level and is now trading at about $32.50.  "Bank of America had been drifting sideways for a couple of months. And when stocks trade sideways, it indicates investor indecision," Kosar said. "But when a stock comes out of that range, one way or another, that means investors have made their mind up."   "The fact that one of the biggest components in the financial sector is heading down does not bode well for the rest of the group. BofA could be the canary in the coal mine for financial stocks," Kosar added.

HedgeWorld  Blog   (May 23rd, 2008)
Corrective Lenses
Here’s an interesting oil price blog entry from the folks over at Asbury Research. They took a look at Occidental Petroleum Corp., using its stock price as a proxy for oil prices. In April, Asbury’s research established a $100-per-share upside target for Occidental. That target was met on May 21. The whole entry is worth reading, but here’s the meat as I see it:

HedgeWorld   (May 20th, 2008)
Credit the Fed for Low Inflation
Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., a bond investment firm in Newport Beach, Calif., is a champion of this school of skepticism. He has said for years that government inflation data cannot be trusted. In his view, it’s the headline inflation and not the core figure that really matters in a world characterized by globalization and growing appetites for oil, food and commodities on the part of Asian countries. Taking note of the apparent benign neglect of the Fed vis-à-vis inflation, John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago, said: “The latest survey-based measures of inflation expectations clearly indicate that Main Street does not believe that inflation will moderate like the Fed does, and suggests that Main Street may in fact have lost faith in the Fed’s ability, or even its willingness, to fight inflation.”

Forbes   (May 8th, 2008)
The producer price index on a year-over-year basis rose 6.9 percent in March, marking the sixth consecutive month that headline PPI was above 6.2 percent.  The last time that producer inflation held at those levels for six consecutive months was in late in 1981, when benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields were near 15.75 percent -- well above the current yield of about 3.90 percent, according to John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago.

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (May 6th, 2008)
John Kosar of the Logic over Emotion blog says copper prices suggest reasonable strength in economic growth. “Although recent price activity in copper has been very positive lately, we note that it is still in the early stages of this bullish breakout and not completely out of the woods yet,” he writes. “We are closely watching the direction of copper prices from here as not only an indication of copper’s longer term trend, but also a leading indication of what to expect from both the US economy and US stock market for the rest of Q2 and into the second half of 2008.”

Barron's   (May 1, 2008)
Emotional Market
Sentiment Survey by Asbury Research
April 26: Investor-sentiment measures, as they pertain to the U.S. dollar, have been uncharacteristically conflicting and inconclusive for most of this year, indicating uncertainty on the future direction of the greenback, while establishing its current level as a possible longer-term inflection point.  More recently, however, these sentiment measures have started to come back into sync...and now suggest that the dollar's recent decline is likely to continue for the near-term...[yet] this decline should ultimately lead into a much larger rally in the greenback.

Dow Jones Newswires   (April 29th, 2008)
A slowing economy was only one half of what Asbury Research president John Kosar described as a "two-headed monster." The other half was inflation, and consumers' expectations for higher inflation, which Kosar said can be a "self-fulfilling prophesy." Soaring prices for energy and other commodities  heightened inflation concerns, causing investors to substantially pare back rate cut expectations.  Given the inflation threat, Kosar believed fed-funds traders had priced in too much Fed easing. "We thought the funds contract might be priced toward too much accommodation," said Kosar.

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (April 22nd, 2008)
John Kosar of Asbury Research notes on his firm’s blog that the Dow, having closed above 12768, was a positive signal, and equities are now in the process of “building a base” for future moves. “The forward-looking US stock market starting to price in a recovery in the US economy,” he writes.

Reuters USA  (April 21st, 2008)
"The market is starting to understand that these inflationary pressures are -- as the Fed has said -- going to restrict how much more easing they can do, and that has pushed prices on the front end of the curve down faster than in the back end," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago.

Reuters  (April 15th, 2008)
On Tuesday, U.S. crude oil futures hit record highs above $113 per barrel. Separately, a government report on Tuesday showed that U.S. headline producer prices accelerated to a 6.9 percent year-over-year rate in March. That's the sixth straight month the year-over-year headline PPI reading has been above 6.2 percent and the last time that happened was in late 1981, Asbury Research wrote in a note to clients.

Chicago Sun Times  (April 13th, 2008)
John Kosar, president of Asbury Research, said the intriguing Dow movements come as the market has gone through months of vacillation as investors try to decide if the worst of the credit crisis and the economic slowdown are past. He said another sign that the market could be ready for an advance is that many measures of trader sentiment are way out on the bearish extreme.  To Kosar, that reminds him of a lesson from his days dealing contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. "You look around the pit and when you see all the traders' positions are one way, the market has to switch. It can't possibly sustain itself," he said.

Reuters  (April 11th, 2008)
The University of Michigan survey showed that expectations of higher inflation are getting more "sticky." The five-year inflation expectation rose to a median 3.1 percent from 2.9 percent in March.  Meanwhile, the 4.8-percent inflation reading expected over the next 12 months was a 20-year peak, said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago.  "If the Fed is as concerned about these inflation expectations as they say they are, these latest data should keep them up at night," Kosar said. "Inflation expectations are already out of control by some measures."

Lipper HedgeWorld  (April 9th, 2008)
“We’ve looked at investor sentiment data and we’re seeing some of the hedge funds more bearish on long-term Treasuries than they’ve been in years,” said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research, a Chicago-based research firm, who looks at the direction of the long-term government bonds. “At the same time, retail investors are very bullish on long-term Treasuries. But retail investors are notorious for being the most bullish at market tops, whether you’re talking stocks, bonds or corn flakes,” he said.

Barron's Online  (April 2nd, 2008)
You may be asking: Why the concern that interest rates will climb if the Federal Reserve is focused on juicing the economy with liquidity? From the fundamental perspective, the Fed may be acting as economy fixers with interest-rate cuts and looser borrowing requirements, but Bernanke & Co. are starting to talk openly about the risks of higher inflation and the need to fight it. So concludes John Kosar, CMT, of the market analysis firm Asbury Research.  Wording in several recent speeches by Fed members this year has made a reference to "inflation expectations" and how it will hamper their attempts to cut interest rates further.

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (March 20th, 2008)
Gold futures are losing some of their luster, lately trading at $928.30 an ounce, a sharp decline from the last close above $1,000, which was just Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar rallies against the euro, Swiss franc and yen. Asbury Research’s John Kosar asked today in his blog, Logic Over Emotion Investing, whether the “collapse in gold” could help the dollar with an overdue bounce.

Bill Barnhart Column - Chicago Tribune (March 12th, 2008)
The clearest clue of an impending rebound was the miserable state of investor sentiment as the week began, said technical market analyst John Kosar of Asbury Research. All dozen sentiment readings he follows were strongly negative.  For example, nearly 52 percent of investors were bearish in the latest weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors. The long-term average bearish reading in the survey is 29 percent.  "You've had all investors on one side of the boat," Kosar said. "When everybody is expecting the end of Western civilization, a piece of good news throws everybody off kilter."

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (March 4th, 2008)
To some, the chip stocks are in danger of dropping further, as the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index was lately traded at 339.34, not far from a 52-week low, falling through support levels around 352. “These major support levels define an important decision point for market-leading technology stocks - how these indexes react will be seen as a key indication of whether the recent broad market decline in the US will continue, or if a corrective rebound will occur first,” note analysts at Asbury Research.

CNBC.com   (March 3rd, 2008)
Inflation pressures have indeed become a significant issue for the bond market in a short amount of time and could exacerbate problems for the consumer and confound the Fed.  For example, the break-even point for the 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed security -- a widely-followed gauge of inflation expectations -- rose to 2.45 percent at the end of February, matching a high from early November 2007, according Reuters EcoWin.   "This means that the public's inflation expectations, which Fed Chair Bernanke has mentioned three times since January 17th as being key to the Fed's ability to continue easing interest rates, have gone from being a non-factor to a big potential problem in just the past month," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research, in a note.

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (March 3rd, 2008)
John Kosar of Asbury Research says inflation is getting worse, too. “As much as the Fed is seemingly diverting our attention away from inflationary pressures as it desperately tries to keep the economy vertical via printing money, the inflation monster is alive and well - and is growing and gaining momentum,” he writes.

Bill Barnhart Column - Chicago Tribune (January 31st, 2008)
The Fed cut rates because it can. This is another persuasive point, described in detail in a report Wednesday by technical market analyst John Kosar of Asbury Research.  Kosar observed that recent surveys of the public's concern about inflation are growing ominous. Likewise, market-based indicators of inflation expectations seem poised to jump higher. But at the moment, survey and market indicators of inflation fears are relatively benign, allowing Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke to assert that inflation expectations are "well anchored."

International Herald Tribune  (January 30th, 2008)
"The Fed understands that it needs to make hay while the sun shines by pumping as much liquidity into the economy now, while it still can, before the public's inflation expectations catch up with reality," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago.

Reuters  (January 8th, 2008)
"Looking at the big picture, I think there's more downside to go. I think we're in for a bigger decline," said John Kosar, market technician at Asbury Research in Chicago. "The market is pretty afraid of economic weakness here."

Interview

Welling @ Weeden (March 2008)

John Kosar was interviewed by Kate Wellingfor the March 2006 issue of Welling@Weeden.  Welling@Weeden is an insightful and irreverent journal of investment news and analysis that is widely read by professional money managers worldwide.  It is written by former Barron's associate editor Kate. Welling for Weeden and Company's client base of more than 1,500 institutional investors. 

Kate is renowned for her in-depth interviews of some of the biggest names in the financial industry, including George Soros, Walter Mintz, Robert Wilson, Mario Gabelli, Lee Cooperman, Julian Robertson, Bill Gross, Ron Baron, Ralph Wanger, Peter Lynch, Art Samberg, and Jim Rogers.  We thank Kate for her interest in our work. VIEW THE PDF


On The Air

2007

June 4th, 2007
John Kosar appeared on Bloomberg Television's Morning Call at 7:00 AM ET with host Carol Massar.  John and Carol discussed the a 35-year secular trend of declining long term US interest rates.

April 9th, 2007
John Kosar appeared on Bloomberg Television's Trend Watch at 6:35 AM ET with host Brian Sullivan.  John and Brian discussed the direction of US interest rates.

March 19th, 2007
John Kosar appeared on Bloomberg Television's Morning Call at 6:35 AM ET with host Matt Nesto.  John and Matt discussed the VIX and its implications for direction of the US stock markets.

February 8th 2007
John Kosar hosted Bloomberg's "Thursday Night Technicals" series from 3:30 to 5:30 PM CT at Bloomberg's Chicago training facility at 111 S. Wacker Drive, which is two blocks from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago's "Loop".  John displayed and discussed a series of charts that detailed Asbury Research's outlook for the US financial markets in 2007.

January 22nd 2007
John Kosar appeared on Bloomberg Television's Trend Watch at 6:35 AM ET with host Brian Sullivan.  The topic covered was the direction of US interest rates in 2007.

October 23rd, 2006
John Kosar and Lehman Brothers' Jeff DeGraff  appeared on CNBC's Morning Call with host Mark Haines to discuss the US stock market.

 



 
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