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Media & Appearances

 

In The Press

Asbury Research Director of Research John Kosar is a sought-after commentator for a number of broadcast, online and print publications.

2008

NEW!  The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (September 16, 2008)
The bounce in the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index — which hit 33.70 during the session — suggests that there has been a surge in fear amid all of the day’s issues. Previous market trouble usually produced this type of reaction in the VIX, which closed at 30.53 Tuesday. “If we can assume that the market will react to a similar extreme in investor fear in the same way this time, then it would be reasonable to expect the S&P 500 to establish a near term bottom anytime between today and the end of next week,” writes John Kosar, analyst at Asbury Research.

NEW!  Welling @ Weeden (September 12th, 2008)
Acute Observations: Asbury Research
"This Week, there are still a lot of mixed signals in the market, but they appear to be more of a time frame issue. Combined, they suggest the potential for a bounce higher into mid-month, followed by more weakness into lateQ3 / early Q4 which should lead into a recovery through late 2008 / early 2009. Specifically, near term technically oversold conditions appear to be tying in to this morning's Fannie and Freddie-related spike higher in the U.S. stock market which, according to intra-month seasonal data, could extend into mid month."   continued...

NEW!  Reuters (September 12th, 2008)
Having failed to reach deals to raise desperately needed capital, Lehman goes into the weekend trying to sell itself or part of its business.  "Investor sentiment is braced for the worst news possible," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "When you have extreme circumstances like we're having now it's very hard to try to figure out what to do next."

Dow Jones Newswires (August 29th, 2008)
For the past couple of weeks, market participants seemed to shrug off big gains in the July consumer and producer price indexes, focusing instead on a slumping economy and tight credit conditions. "This may very well be a trend that has overextended because of credit crisis-related issues," said John Kosar, director of Asbury Research Friday, Kosar said investors couldn't ignore data from the Commerce Department showing a lofty inflation indicator that is closely watched by Fed rate-setters. Core-personal consumption expenditures, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, climbed 2.4% in July compared to the same time a year ago. The Fed's definition of price stability is a 1.5% to 2% range on an annual basis. Kosar noted that July's core-PCE reading is also at the "high extreme" of this year's Fed inflation projections. "There is really no more room for these numbers to rise any further without the Fed having to concede that inflationary pressures are becoming even worse than they thought possible.

The Guardian - UK (August 25th, 2008)
The spread between 10-year Treasury inflation protected securities and conventional Treasury yields fell to 2.16 percent, not far from its multi-year low from a week ago.  "Wall Street either believes there is no inflation problem in the United States, or that the Fed will not address it by raising interest rates," said John Kosar, analyst at Asbury Research.

Welling @ Weeden (August 22nd, 2008)
GuestPerspectives (
access requires subscription)
July PPI: Spread Between Inflation, Interest Rates At Extreme

Reuters Business & Finance  (August 20th, 2008)
Financial traders now see just a one-in-three chance that the Fed will raise rates to 2.25 percent by year end from the current 2 percent. As recently as July 23, the market was leaning toward a year-end rate of 2.5 percent.  "The market is clearly much more worried about slowing growth and the credit crisis than it is about any monetary response from the Fed to try to fight inflation," said John Kosar, analyst at Asbury Research in Chicago.

The Wall Street Journal  (August 5th, 2008)
Some analysts believe that the stock market's gains will prove to be short-lived. "The stock market is range-bound but volatile at the moment, which tells you that people really aren't sure what to make of the risks out there," said research director John Kosar, of Asbury Research in Chicago.  Mr. Kosar remains worried about inflation. He points to recent University of Michigan survey data showing strong expectations among consumers that the prices of goods and services will be sharply higher throughout the economy a year from now. He believes such sentiment could easily become self-fulfilling if companies desperate to pass along costs interpret consumers' expectations of price hikes as leeway to actually raise prices.

Dow Jones Newswires  (July 28th, 2008)
It's difficult to argue that long-term rates are going down if the Federal Reserve has "already conceded that inflation is a problem," said John Kosar, director of research for Asbury Research. Kosar noted that Friday's consumer sentiment report from data provider Reuters and the University of Michigan revealed a very lofty one-year inflation forecast, at 5.1% for the second month in a row.  At stake for the Fed, according to Kosar, is its credibility to fight inflation. "The Fed has stated on numerous occasions that it needs to have credibility," Kosar said

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (July 21st, 2008)
The Financial Sector Select SPDRs exchange-traded fund didn’t mark major gains on the day, but its increase was enough to put it at a close of 20.44, the highest closing price for that index since June 26, before falling 15% in the first two weeks of July. Furthermore, the price action in bellwether Goldman Sachs Group Inc. suggests that investors are again seeing the financials as a place to go and not run from — for however long that lasts. Analysts at Asbury Research say the trading in Goldman of late suggested more bearishness, but the shares turned last week. “Failed bearish patterns are pretty rare, but when they occur it indicates that the market has, for whatever reason, aggressively changed its mind on future price direction,” they write. Goldman shares ended the day down 1.1%.

Dow Jones Newswires  (June 26th, 2008)
In their accompanying policy statement, panel members said that "although downside risks to (economic) growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat."    The FOMC also said that "upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased."   "That's the phrase that pays," said John Kosar, director of research for Asbury Research.  The Fed clearly implied that it had "shifted from having an easing bias to a tightening bias," said Kosar.  He played down Thursday's action, which seemed to reflect market expectations that the funds rate won't budge until this fall.   "You're trying to look at a ripple, instead of a wave. Markets go up and down every day," Kosar explained.

Forbes.com  (June 20th, 2008)
ANALYSIS-Technicians see Wall Street on thin ice
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The technical picture of the U.S. stock market is deteriorating fast, putting Wall Street on course to test its March lows in the coming days and it could fall even further.  "I think we are at a near-term inflection point," said John Kosar, market technician and president of Asbury Research in Chicago. "If there's any more bleeding from here I think that will point to a re-test of the first-quarter lows and maybe a breakdown through those lows in the third quarter."

CNN Money   (June 4th, 2008)
"The financials have to participate to a degree if you expect some sort of sustainable rally. Financials are a big chunk of the broader market," said John Kosar, director of research with Asbury Research.   Kosar said one troubling sign is that one of the sector's leaders, Bank of America, has taken a notable turn for the worse. The stock had been mainly trading in a narrow range of between $35 and $40 since March. But it recently dropped below the $35 level and is now trading at about $32.50.  "Bank of America had been drifting sideways for a couple of months. And when stocks trade sideways, it indicates investor indecision," Kosar said. "But when a stock comes out of that range, one way or another, that means investors have made their mind up."   "The fact that one of the biggest components in the financial sector is heading down does not bode well for the rest of the group. BofA could be the canary in the coal mine for financial stocks," Kosar added.

HedgeWorld  Blog   (May 23rd, 2008)
Corrective Lenses
Here’s an interesting oil price blog entry from the folks over at Asbury Research. They took a look at Occidental Petroleum Corp., using its stock price as a proxy for oil prices. In April, Asbury’s research established a $100-per-share upside target for Occidental. That target was met on May 21. The whole entry is worth reading, but here’s the meat as I see it:

HedgeWorld   (May 20th, 2008)
Credit the Fed for Low Inflation
Bill Gross, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., a bond investment firm in Newport Beach, Calif., is a champion of this school of skepticism. He has said for years that government inflation data cannot be trusted. In his view, it’s the headline inflation and not the core figure that really matters in a world characterized by globalization and growing appetites for oil, food and commodities on the part of Asian countries. Taking note of the apparent benign neglect of the Fed vis-à-vis inflation, John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago, said: “The latest survey-based measures of inflation expectations clearly indicate that Main Street does not believe that inflation will moderate like the Fed does, and suggests that Main Street may in fact have lost faith in the Fed’s ability, or even its willingness, to fight inflation.”

Forbes   (May 8th, 2008)
The producer price index on a year-over-year basis rose 6.9 percent in March, marking the sixth consecutive month that headline PPI was above 6.2 percent.  The last time that producer inflation held at those levels for six consecutive months was in late in 1981, when benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields were near 15.75 percent -- well above the current yield of about 3.90 percent, according to John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago.

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (May 6th, 2008)
John Kosar of the Logic over Emotion blog says copper prices suggest reasonable strength in economic growth. “Although recent price activity in copper has been very positive lately, we note that it is still in the early stages of this bullish breakout and not completely out of the woods yet,” he writes. “We are closely watching the direction of copper prices from here as not only an indication of copper’s longer term trend, but also a leading indication of what to expect from both the US economy and US stock market for the rest of Q2 and into the second half of 2008.”

Barron's   (May 1, 2008)
Emotional Market
Sentiment Survey by Asbury Research
April 26: Investor-sentiment measures, as they pertain to the U.S. dollar, have been uncharacteristically conflicting and inconclusive for most of this year, indicating uncertainty on the future direction of the greenback, while establishing its current level as a possible longer-term inflection point.  More recently, however, these sentiment measures have started to come back into sync...and now suggest that the dollar's recent decline is likely to continue for the near-term...[yet] this decline should ultimately lead into a much larger rally in the greenback.

Dow Jones Newswires   (April 29th, 2008)
A slowing economy was only one half of what Asbury Research president John Kosar described as a "two-headed monster." The other half was inflation, and consumers' expectations for higher inflation, which Kosar said can be a "self-fulfilling prophesy." Soaring prices for energy and other commodities  heightened inflation concerns, causing investors to substantially pare back rate cut expectations.  Given the inflation threat, Kosar believed fed-funds traders had priced in too much Fed easing. "We thought the funds contract might be priced toward too much accommodation," said Kosar.

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (April 22nd, 2008)
John Kosar of Asbury Research notes on his firm’s blog that the Dow, having closed above 12768, was a positive signal, and equities are now in the process of “building a base” for future moves. “The forward-looking US stock market starting to price in a recovery in the US economy,” he writes.

Reuters USA  (April 21st, 2008)
"The market is starting to understand that these inflationary pressures are -- as the Fed has said -- going to restrict how much more easing they can do, and that has pushed prices on the front end of the curve down faster than in the back end," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago.

Reuters  (April 15th, 2008)
On Tuesday, U.S. crude oil futures hit record highs above $113 per barrel. Separately, a government report on Tuesday showed that U.S. headline producer prices accelerated to a 6.9 percent year-over-year rate in March. That's the sixth straight month the year-over-year headline PPI reading has been above 6.2 percent and the last time that happened was in late 1981, Asbury Research wrote in a note to clients.

Chicago Sun Times  (April 13th, 2008)
John Kosar, president of Asbury Research, said the intriguing Dow movements come as the market has gone through months of vacillation as investors try to decide if the worst of the credit crisis and the economic slowdown are past. He said another sign that the market could be ready for an advance is that many measures of trader sentiment are way out on the bearish extreme.  To Kosar, that reminds him of a lesson from his days dealing contracts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. "You look around the pit and when you see all the traders' positions are one way, the market has to switch. It can't possibly sustain itself," he said.

Reuters  (April 11th, 2008)
The University of Michigan survey showed that expectations of higher inflation are getting more "sticky." The five-year inflation expectation rose to a median 3.1 percent from 2.9 percent in March.  Meanwhile, the 4.8-percent inflation reading expected over the next 12 months was a 20-year peak, said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago.  "If the Fed is as concerned about these inflation expectations as they say they are, these latest data should keep them up at night," Kosar said. "Inflation expectations are already out of control by some measures."

Lipper HedgeWorld  (April 9th, 2008)
“We’ve looked at investor sentiment data and we’re seeing some of the hedge funds more bearish on long-term Treasuries than they’ve been in years,” said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research, a Chicago-based research firm, who looks at the direction of the long-term government bonds. “At the same time, retail investors are very bullish on long-term Treasuries. But retail investors are notorious for being the most bullish at market tops, whether you’re talking stocks, bonds or corn flakes,” he said.

Barron's Online  (April 2nd, 2008)
You may be asking: Why the concern that interest rates will climb if the Federal Reserve is focused on juicing the economy with liquidity? From the fundamental perspective, the Fed may be acting as economy fixers with interest-rate cuts and looser borrowing requirements, but Bernanke & Co. are starting to talk openly about the risks of higher inflation and the need to fight it. So concludes John Kosar, CMT, of the market analysis firm Asbury Research.  Wording in several recent speeches by Fed members this year has made a reference to "inflation expectations" and how it will hamper their attempts to cut interest rates further.

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (March 20th, 2008)
Gold futures are losing some of their luster, lately trading at $928.30 an ounce, a sharp decline from the last close above $1,000, which was just Tuesday, as the U.S. dollar rallies against the euro, Swiss franc and yen. Asbury Research’s John Kosar asked today in his blog, Logic Over Emotion Investing, whether the “collapse in gold” could help the dollar with an overdue bounce.

Bill Barnhart Column - Chicago Tribune (March 12th, 2008)
The clearest clue of an impending rebound was the miserable state of investor sentiment as the week began, said technical market analyst John Kosar of Asbury Research. All dozen sentiment readings he follows were strongly negative.  For example, nearly 52 percent of investors were bearish in the latest weekly survey by the American Association of Individual Investors. The long-term average bearish reading in the survey is 29 percent.  "You've had all investors on one side of the boat," Kosar said. "When everybody is expecting the end of Western civilization, a piece of good news throws everybody off kilter."

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (March 4th, 2008)
To some, the chip stocks are in danger of dropping further, as the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index was lately traded at 339.34, not far from a 52-week low, falling through support levels around 352. “These major support levels define an important decision point for market-leading technology stocks - how these indexes react will be seen as a key indication of whether the recent broad market decline in the US will continue, or if a corrective rebound will occur first,” note analysts at Asbury Research.

CNBC.com   (March 3rd, 2008)
Inflation pressures have indeed become a significant issue for the bond market in a short amount of time and could exacerbate problems for the consumer and confound the Fed.  For example, the break-even point for the 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed security -- a widely-followed gauge of inflation expectations -- rose to 2.45 percent at the end of February, matching a high from early November 2007, according Reuters EcoWin.   "This means that the public's inflation expectations, which Fed Chair Bernanke has mentioned three times since January 17th as being key to the Fed's ability to continue easing interest rates, have gone from being a non-factor to a big potential problem in just the past month," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research, in a note.

The Wall Street Journal - Market Beat   (March 3rd, 2008)
John Kosar of Asbury Research says inflation is getting worse, too. “As much as the Fed is seemingly diverting our attention away from inflationary pressures as it desperately tries to keep the economy vertical via printing money, the inflation monster is alive and well - and is growing and gaining momentum,” he writes.

Bill Barnhart Column - Chicago Tribune (January 31st, 2008)
The Fed cut rates because it can. This is another persuasive point, described in detail in a report Wednesday by technical market analyst John Kosar of Asbury Research.  Kosar observed that recent surveys of the public's concern about inflation are growing ominous. Likewise, market-based indicators of inflation expectations seem poised to jump higher. But at the moment, survey and market indicators of inflation fears are relatively benign, allowing Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke to assert that inflation expectations are "well anchored."

International Herald Tribune  (January 30th, 2008)
"The Fed understands that it needs to make hay while the sun shines by pumping as much liquidity into the economy now, while it still can, before the public's inflation expectations catch up with reality," said John Kosar, president of Asbury Research in Chicago.

Reuters  (January 8th, 2008)
"Looking at the big picture, I think there's more downside to go. I think we're in for a bigger decline," said John Kosar, market technician at Asbury Research in Chicago. "The market is pretty afraid of economic weakness here."

Interview

Welling @ Weeden (March 2008)

John Kosar was interviewed by Kate Wellingfor the March 2006 issue of Welling@Weeden.  Welling@Weeden is an insightful and irreverent journal of investment news and analysis that is widely read by professional money managers worldwide.  It is written by former Barron's associate editor Kate. Welling for Weeden and Company's client base of more than 1,500 institutional investors. 

Kate is renowned for her in-depth interviews of some of the biggest names in the financial industry, including George Soros, Walter Mintz, Robert Wilson, Mario Gabelli, Lee Cooperman, Julian Robertson, Bill Gross, Ron Baron, Ralph Wanger, Peter Lynch, Art Samberg, and Jim Rogers.  We thank Kate for her interest in our work. VIEW THE PDF


On The Air

2007

June 4th, 2007
John Kosar appeared on Bloomberg Television's Morning Call at 7:00 AM ET with host Carol Massar.  John and Carol discussed the a 35-year secular trend of declining long term US interest rates.

April 9th, 2007
John Kosar appeared on Bloomberg Television's Trend Watch at 6:35 AM ET with host Brian Sullivan.  John and Brian discussed the direction of US interest rates.

March 19th, 2007
John Kosar appeared on Bloomberg Television's Morning Call at 6:35 AM ET with host Matt Nesto.  John and Matt discussed the VIX and its implications for direction of the US stock markets.

February 8th 2007
John Kosar hosted Bloomberg's "Thursday Night Technicals" series from 3:30 to 5:30 PM CT at Bloomberg's Chicago training facility at 111 S. Wacker Drive, which is two blocks from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in Chicago's "Loop".  John displayed and discussed a series of charts that detailed Asbury Research's outlook for the US financial markets in 2007.

January 22nd 2007
John Kosar appeared on Bloomberg Television's Trend Watch at 6:35 AM ET with host Brian Sullivan.  The topic covered was the direction of US interest rates in 2007.

October 23rd, 2006
John Kosar and Lehman Brothers' Jeff DeGraff  appeared on CNBC's Morning Call with host Mark Haines to discuss the US stock market.

 



 
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