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Asbury’s Forward-Looking Calls – 2007 & 2008 Samples

THE US STOCK MARKET:

NEW! JULY 7, 2008:
WHAT WE SAID: "This Week our top four "Keys To This Week" (which include a rising VIX, the latest investor sentiment data, technically oversold conditions and major underlying support just below the market) all indicate a favorable technical environment for a near term bottom to emerge in the US stock market over the next week or so."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The S&P 500 bottomed six business days later, on July 15th, and then proceeded to rally by 113 points or 9% into the August 11th high.

MAY 5, 2008:
WHAT WE SAID: "...favorable conditions (exist) for at least a minor decline in the US stock market before the major indexes continue much higher."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The S&P 500 peaked two weeks later, on May 19th, and then declined by 240 pts into the mid July lows.

JANUARY 22, 2008:
WHAT WE SAID: "This Week, a spike in volume in the broad market S&P 500, technically oversold conditions, and the latest investor sentiment data all suggest that the US stock market is probably within a week or so of setting a near term bottom."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The S&P 500 bottomed a day later, on January 23rd, and then rose by 170 pts or 13% by May 19th.

OCTOBER 8, 2007:
WHAT WE SAID: "This Week, the US stock market still appears to be within just a week or two of an important near term top. Current internal weakness according to Dow Theory, expected upcoming weakness from the market-leading Technology Sector, and an unmet downside target in the Japanese stock market all suggest that the August rally in the US stock market is, in baseball terms, in probably somewhere around the 8th inning. Moreover, based on previous market reaction to similar technical conditions, the decline we are expecting appears likely to dominate much of Q4."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The S&P 500 peaked three days later, on October 11th, then declined by 305 points or 19% by January 23rd.

AUGUST 13, 2007:
WHAT WE SAID: "This Week, the US broad market remains positioned right on top of major support while amid near-perfect conditions (recently active volume, favorable near term investor sentiment, a multi-year extreme in investor fear as indicated by the VIX, and technically oversold conditions) for its 2002 uptrend to resume. If that uptrend is still healthy (we see no clear evidence to the contrary), this is where it should resume from."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The S&P 500 bottomed three days later, on August 16th, and then rose by 206 points or 15% by October 11th.

US INTEREST RATES & TREASURIES:

NEW! JUNE 9, 2008:
WHAT WE SAID: "Last week we said that "it would take a significant contraction in T-Bond open interest plus a positive shift in (daily) market momentum to confirm that a correction is underway". Both of those took place last week. In addition, Treasury contracts across the yield curve are short-term oversold while positioned just above major support at their 200-day moving averages, which establishes favorable conditions for at least a near term price rally."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The CBOT T-Bond contract bottomed four days later, on June 13th, and since then has risen by 7 10/32nds or 7% into the late August high. During the same period, the yield of the 10-Year Treasury Note declined by 48 basis points to 3.79% from 4.27%..

MARCH 17, 2008:
WHAT WE SAID: "...seven of our 10 "Keys" are bearish for bond prices - they strongly suggest that US interest rates are near an important bottom"

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The CBOT T-Bond contract peaked three days later, on March 20th, and since then has declined by 8 8/32nds or 7%% into the mid June lows. During the same period, the yield of the 10-Year Treasury Note rose to 4.27% from 3.34%..

JANUARY 22, 2008:
WHAT WE SAID: " The combination of multi-year extremes in investor sentiment, technically overbought conditions, and the fact that most near term upside price targets have been met suggests that benchmark US bond prices are probably within just a week or so of setting at least a 1-2 month top."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The CBOT T-Bond contract peaked one day later, on January 23rd, and then declined by 7 19/32nds or 6% by February 20th. During the same period, the yield of the 10-Year Treasury Note rose to 3.93% from 3.51%.

NOVEMBER 27, 2007:
WHAT WE SAID: "The June rally in US Treasury prices is in its final stages and unlikely to continue much further from here without at least a 1-2 month corrective decline first."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The CBOT T-Bond contract peaked that day (November 27th) before declining by 5 16/32nds or 5% into the December 26th low. During the same period, the yield of the 10-Year Treasury Note rose to 4.30% from 3.95%.

JUNE 4, 2007
WHAT WE SAID: "This week, more and more technical bias is steadily becoming apparent that suggests the likelihood of a rally in mid- to long-dated Treasury prices between now and the end of Q2, and probably before prices move much lower."

WHAT THE MARKET DID: The CBOT T-Bond contract bottomed a little over a week later, on June 13th, and through the end of 2007 had risen by 12 11/32nds or 12%. During the same period, the yield of the 10-Year Treasury Note declined to 4.04% from 5.20%.