Weekly-updated PDF of all SEAF Rainbow Charts:  Click the link below to download a PDF of this new addition to our research services.

Click Here For This Week’s SEAF Model “Rainbow Charts” Update
Assets Continue Flowing Into Financials & Utilities
Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The SEAF Model graphic below shows that cyclical Financials (XLF) and defensive Utilities (XLU) are once again the two top-ranked sectors according to the SEAF Model, while cyclical Real Estate (XLRE) has also (but just barely) moved into Favored status this week.  At the other end of the spectrum, typically offensive, risk on sectors Technology (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary  (XLY) remain buried in Avoid status according to SEAF as investors remain aligned defensively amid more uncertainty out of Washington including upcoming tariffs and, most recently, threats to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the latter which would likely throw the US bond market into dissarray according to most economists.

Beyond The SEAF Model Video: This Week’s Sector Themes

This weekly video by Jack Kosar goes into more detail on the latest SEAF Model data via a heat map that provides more detail on where sector-related assets are going, and where they are leaving, in the 11 Sector SPDR ETFs.  Jack also displays and discusses our SEAF “Rainbow Charts” highlighting SEAF’s past 12 months of Favored, Neutral, or Avoid rankings. 

From The Video: This Week’s Major Themes
  • Money still aggressively moving into Financials and Utilities in All time periods.
  • Money aggressively moving into Energy in the Trading time period.
  • Money still aggressively moving out  Technology in All time periods.
The SEAF Model: Current Signals & Related Performance

Editor’s Note:  These are the latest specific trading signals generated by our SEAF Model, which also includes a rules-based money management component.  The backtested performance data below is based on trading a predetermined amount of assets with an equal allocation of those assets across the top three Rankings.  The model is updated once per week, on the weekend, and any rebalancing takes place on the market opening the following Monday morning.  This is the recommended way to invest via the SEAF Model.  Contact us for any additional clarification.

In the SEAF Model Graphic below, the Ranking column sorts the entire table of 11 sector ETFs according to the sum of rankings in the Trading (weekly), Tactical (monthly), and Strategic (quarterly) categories, from largest inflows to largest outflows.  The premise of the model is to invest in the sectors where the money is going and to avoid the sectors where the money is coming out.  

The lower the Ranking number, the stronger the trend of asset flows going into that sector.  The top two sectors in each category, according to a positive change in inflows, are highlighted in green.  The top two sectors in each category, according to a negative change in outflows, are highlighted in red.

Click the table to make it larger

The latest data indicate a multi-timeframe trend of asset inflows into Financials.  This is where the money is currently going in the sector space.

The latest data also indicates a multi-timeframe trend of asset outflows out of Technology and Energy.  This is where the money is coming from.

NEW! SEAF Heat Map

SEAF Heat Map: 04-21-2025

The SEAF Heat Map provides additional insight into the flows of the 11 Sector ETFs. Each time frame is independent, meaning the color spectrum for one period does not affect another. For example, the strongest inflow (dark green) for the trading week is separate from the strongest inflow for the tactical month.

The heat map visually represents the spectrum of inflows and outflows, with green indicating inflows and red indicating outflows. The more extreme the flow, the darker the corresponding color—deep green for strong inflows and deep red for strong outflows. Flows closer to yellow indicate minimal percentage change.

This tool serves as an additional layer of information to help investors not only identify where sector flows are moving but also gauge the relative strength of those flows compared to their peers.

SEAF Model Individual Sector Charts (“Rainbow Charts”)

The charts below display the weekly SEAF Model Ranking Scores over the previous 12 months for the strongest and weakest sectors through September 12th.  The line in the upper panel displays these weekly scores within the context of being Favored (3-15, green), Neutral (16-24, yellow), or Avoid (25-33, red) and also displays the trend of asset flows as the money moves in and out of these sectors.  The lower panel plots the corresponding weekly relative performance chart of that particular sector versus the S&P 500 (SPY).

Financials (XLF)

Cyclical Financials (XLF) is again the SEAF Model’s top-ranked sector this week with a Ranking score of 5, strengthening from ranking of 7 a week earlier.  Financials has been one of the top-three-ranked sectors for four of the past five weeks beginning on Mar 24th.  The green highlights in Chart 1 below show that Financials initially moved to Favored status on March 13th (upper panel) and, except for a quick one-day move to Neutral status on Apr 3rd, has remained there since while XLF has coincidentally outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY, lower panel) by 4%.  

Chart 1

Utilities: XLU

Defensive Utilities is again the SEAF Model’s second-ranked sector this week with a Ranking score of 7, strengthening from a ranking of 12 a week earlier.  Utilities has been one of the top-four-ranked sectors for the past six weeks beginning on Mar 17th.  As a result, through the end of last week, XLU has been the second-best-performing Select Sector SPDR ETF year to date, rising 2.8% outright while outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) by 12.8%.  The green highlights in the upper panel of Chart 2 below show that Utilities initially moved into Favored territory on Feb 7th (upper panel) and, with the exception of a few quick moves in and out of Neutral status, has remained there since.  The lower panel shows that XLU has coincidentally outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) by 15%.

Real Estate: XLRE

Cyclical Real Estate (XLRE) is the SEAF Model’s third best-ranked sector this week with a Ranking score of 15, which is the lowest possible ranking for a Favored sector.  The green highlights show that Real Estate edged into Favored status at the very end of last week, and also that the sector has (thus far unsuccessfully) been trying to make a sustained move into Favored territory since early March.  The green highlights on the left side of the chart show that the last time Real Estate has spent a sustained period in Favored status was between July and September of last year as XLRE coincidentally outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 (SPY) by 8%.

Chart 3