Health Care Retains Its Strong October Inflows

Weekly-updated PDF of all SEAF Rainbow Charts:  Click the link below to download a PDF of this new addition to our research services.

Click Here For This Week’s SEAF Model “Rainbow Charts” Update

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

This week, defensive Health Care (XLV) is again the top-ranked sector, for the third consecutive week, with a Ranking Score of 4 while maintaining top-three status for seven of the past eight weeks.  The next two best-ranked sectors, Technology (XLK) and Industrials (XLI), are barely in Favored territory with Ranking Scores of 14.  At the other end of the spectrum, cyclical Financials (XLF) and defensive Consumer Staples (XLP) are the two weakest sectors and on Avoid status.  Common to most sectors this year is quickly and erratically changing SEAF Ranking  Scores, driven by economic uncertainty as it pertains to tariffs, employment, and the direction of interest rates.

Beyond The SEAF Model Video: This Week’s Sector Themes

This weekly video by Jack Kosar goes into more detail on the latest SEAF Model data via our SEAF Rainbow Charts and a heat map that provides more color and detail on where sector-related assets are going and where they are coming from across the 11 Sector SPDR ETFs, which together comprise the S&P 500.   Our Rainbow Charts highlight SEAF’s previous 12 months of Favored, Neutral, and Avoid rankings. 

From The Video: This Week’s Major Themes
  • Money is aggressively moving into Health Care in All time periods (same as a week earlier).
  • Money is aggressively moving into Technology in the Trading and Strategic time periods.
  • Money is aggressively moving out of Financials and Energy in the Trading and Strategic time periods.
The SEAF Model: Current Signals & Related Performance

Editor’s Note:  These are the latest specific trading signals generated by our SEAF Model, which also includes a rules-based money management component.  The backtested performance data below is based on trading a predetermined amount of assets with an equal allocation of those assets across the top three Rankings.  The model is updated once per week, on the weekend, and any rebalancing takes place on the market opening the following Monday morning.  This is the recommended way to invest via the SEAF Model.  Contact us for any additional clarification.

In the SEAF Model Graphic below, the Ranking column sorts the entire table of 11 sector ETFs according to the sum of rankings in the Trading (weekly), Tactical (monthly), and Strategic (quarterly) categories, from largest inflows to largest outflows.  The premise of the model is to invest in the sectors where the money is going and to avoid the sectors where the money is coming out.  

The lower the Ranking number, the stronger the trend of asset flows going into that sector.  The top two sectors in each category, according to a positive change in inflows, are highlighted in green.  The top two sectors in each category, according to a negative change in outflows, are highlighted in red.

Data through 11-26-2025. Click the table above to enlarge

The latest data again indicate a multi-timeframe trend of asset inflows into the Health Care and Technology sectors.  This is where the money is currently going in the sector space.

The latest data also indicate a multi-timeframe trend of asset outflows from the Financials and Energy sectors.  This is where the money is coming from.

SEAF Heat Map

The SEAF Heat Map provides additional insight into the flows of the 11 Sector ETFs. Each time frame is independent, meaning the color spectrum for one period does not affect another. For example, the strongest inflow (dark green) for the trading week is separate from the strongest inflow for the tactical month.

The heat map visually represents the spectrum of inflows and outflows, with green indicating inflows and red indicating outflows. The more extreme the flow, the darker the corresponding color—deep green for strong inflows and deep red for strong outflows. Flows closer to yellow indicate minimal percentage change.

This tool serves as an additional layer of information to help investors not only identify where sector flows are moving but also gauge the relative strength of those flows compared to their peers.

SEAF Model Individual Sector Charts (“Rainbow Charts”)

The charts below display the weekly SEAF Model Ranking Scores over the previous 12 months for the strongest and weakest sectors through October 16th.  The line in the upper panel displays these weekly scores within the context of being Favored (3-15, green), Neutral (16-24, yellow), or Avoid (25-33, red) and also displays the trend of asset flows as the money moves in and out of these sectors.  The lower panel plots the corresponding weekly relative performance chart of that particular sector versus the S&P 500 (SPY).

Health Care (XLV)

Defensive Health Care (XLV) is again the SEAF Model’s top-ranked sector this week with a Ranking score of 4, from a Ranking score of 3 (the best possible) for the previous two weeks.  Health Care has been one of the top-three-ranked sectors for seven of the past eight weeks, beginning on Oct 13th.  The upper panel of Chart 1 below shows that XLV has maintained a Favored SEAF status since Oct 2nd, while the lower panel shows that XLV has outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 (SPY) by 7% (and by as much as 10%) since then.  Year-to-date, according to sectorspdrs.com, Health Care is the fifth-best-performing Sector SPDR ETF, rising by 14.6% while underperforming SPY by 1.5%. 

Chart 1

Technology (XLK)

Offensive Technology (XLK) is the SEAF Model’s second-ranked sector this week with a Ranking score of 14, making a big one-week jump from 22 a week earlier.  This change is due to XLK’s move back to a 1 ranking in the Trading timeframe, up from 10 a week earlier.  Technology has been one of the top three-ranked sectors for 27 of the past 30 weeks beginning on Apr 24th, and has been the top-ranked sector 19 times during this period.  The green highlights in Chart 2 below show that Technology edged back into Favored status last week, following a sustained Favored ranking between Sep 9th and Nov 10th as XLK outperformed the benchmark S&P 500 (SPY) by 6%.  Year-to-date (YTD), according to sectorspdrs.com, XLK is the best-performing Sector SPDR ETF, rising by 23.1% while outperforming SPY by 7.0%.

Chart 2

Industrials (XLI)

Economically sensitive Industrials (XLI) is the SEAF Model’s third-ranked sector this week with a Ranking score of 14, up from 18 a week earlier.  The upper panel of the chart shows that Industrials has made several failed attempts to make a sustained move into Favored status since late August, and it remains to be seen whether this will be another one.  The previous sustained move into Favored status took place between Jun 24th and August 8th. It coincided with a period of relative outperformance by XLI versus the benchmark S&P 500, as indicated by the green arrow in the lower panel.  Year-to-date (YTD), according to sectorspdrs.com, XLI is the fourth best-performing Sector SPDR ETF, rising by 14.9% while outperforming SPY by 1.2%.

Chart 3