Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The total net assets invested in the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF are at a Tactical decision point from which the current uptrend in lage cap Technology must resume, IF still valid.  However, should the recent contraction in  these assets continue, it will likely trigger a corrective decline in the market-leading NASDAQ 100 (NDX).

Analysis and Rationale

The upper panel of Chart 1 below plots the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) daily since December, with a corresponding chart of the daily total net assets invested in the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ, which tracks NDX, blue line) and its 21-day (monthly, our Tactical time period, red line) moving average in the lower panel.

Chart 1

The rightmost colored highlights show that these assets are currently testing their March 16th trend of monthly expansion, which has fueled the recent rally from the March lows.  This sets up a Tactical inflection point for these assets, and for ETF and Technology index they drive.  If the Mar 16th trend of monthly expansion is still valid, this is where it should quickly resume, to fuel NDX’s and QQQ’s next leg higher.  If this trend is broken, however, as it was between Feb 23rd and Mar 15th (red highlights), it is likely to signal the beginning of another downside correction.