Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) in the midst of a minor uptrend line, as defined by its 50-day moving average, amid monthly expansion in investor assets and quarterly relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPY).  Together, these factors establish favorable conditions for more outright strength and relative outperformance by XBI and other biotechnology related assets.  

XBI: Breaking Formidable Resistance Amid Expanding Assets, Relative Outperformance

The green highlights in the upper panel of Chart 1 below show that the State Street SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI) is in the midst of a minor uptrend line, as defined by its blue 50-day moving average, which originated on Jun 2nd.  The middle panel shows that the total net assets invested in XBI (AUM) are currently in a Nov 13th trend of monthly expansion.  However, this trend has essentially been in effect since mid-August.  Expanding assets are characteristic of sustainable price advances.  The lower panel shows that XBI is in the midst of an Aug 13th trend of quarterly relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPY).

As long as these three trends remain intact, the price of XBI is likely to continue rising in the weeks ahead.

Chart 1

Current Sector & Industry Group Ideas

Table 1 below is also accessible via the Asbury ETF Trade Ideas rectangle at the top of the Research Center.

Click the table to make it larger

Performance Metrics Through Q3 2025

Table 2 below breaks down the 111 individual trade ideas published in real time via our Asbury ETF Trade Ideas from March 17th, 2023, through September 30th, 2025, for a total of 2 1/2 years.  Our Asbury ETF Trade Ideas are accessible directly from the Research Center, available via the lower-right rectangle at the top of that page.

These ideas are intended to be potential short-term trading opportunities rather than long-term investments.  However, many users use them to provide exceptional, low-risk entry points into ETFs that they want to add as long-term portfolio holdings.

In addition, since the 30 months of data shown below indicate 1) how long our average holding period has been (18 days) and 2) what our average percent gain has been (5.4%) for winning trades, options traders may consider using these data to purchase out-of-the-money calls with less than a month left until expiration.

Table 2

Glossary Of Financial Terms
Performance Highlights
  • the percentage of winning trades is higher than the percentage of losing trades.
  • the average winning trade is more than double the average losing trade.
  • the average winning trade length (in days) is more than twice as long as the average losing trade length.
  • During the past 30 months, our model has, on average, produced approximately one new trade idea per week.
How We Choose Which ETFs To Trade

Our selection process is to scan a broad list of ETFs daily, looking for four characteristics of successful trades:

  1. a positive major price trend
  2. monthly relative outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500
  3. monthly investor asset expansion
  4. favorable risk/reward characteristics. 

Contact us with questions or for additional information.