Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE) has edged back above its 200-day moving average over the past several days to suggest an emerging major bullish trend change.  This is being accomplished amid monthly expansion in investor assets, which indicates conviction in even higher prices, plus quarterly relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPY).  Together, these factors establish favorable conditions for more outright strength and relative outperformance by KCE and other capital markets-related assets.  

 

KCE: Emerging Bullis Trend Change Amid Expanding Assets And Relative Outperformance Versus The S&P 500

The green highlights in the upper panel of Chart 1 below show that the SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (KCE) has moved back above its 200-day moving average as of May 8th to indicate an emerging major bullish trend change.  The 200-day MA, currently at 131.00, now becomes important underlying support.  The middle panel shows that the total net assets invested in KCE (AUM) moved back above their 21-day moving average on Apr 29th to indicate a monthly trend of expanding assets that is characteristic of sustainable bullish Tactical price advances.  The lower panel shows that KCE has been outperforming the S&P 500 on a 63-day quarterly basis since May 6th.  

As long as these three conditions remain intact, KCE will likely continue moving higher in the weeks ahead.

Chart 1

Current Sector & Industry Group Ideas

Table 1 below is also accessible via the Asbury ETF Trade Ideas rectangle at the top of the Research Center.

Table 1

Click the table to make it larger

Performance Metrics Through April 4th 2025

Table 2 below breaks down the 96 individual trade ideas as published in real time via our Asbury ETF Trade Ideas from March 17th, 2023, through April 4th, 2025, which is a little more than 2 years.  Our Asbury ETF Trade Ideas are accessible directly from the Research Center and available via the lower right rectangle at the top of that page.

These ideas are intended to be potential short-term trading opportunities rather than long-term investments.  However, many users use them to provide exceptional, low-risk entry points into ETFs that they want to add as long-term portfolio holdings.

In addition, since the two years of data shown below indicate 1) how long our average holding period has been (18 days) and 2) what our average percent gain has been (4.4%) for winning trades, options traders may consider using these data to purchase out-of-the-money calls with less than a month left until expiration.

Table 2

Glossary Of Financial Terms
Performance Highlights
  • the percentage of winning trades is higher than the percentage of losing trades.
  • the average winning trade is 2.1% larger than the average losing trade.
  • the average winning trade length (in days) is more than twice as long as the average losing trade length.
  • During the past 24+ months, our model has, on average, produced one new trade idea per week.
How We Choose Which ETFs To Trade

Our selection process is to scan a broad list of ETFs daily, looking for four characteristics of successful trades:

  1. a positive major price trend
  2. monthly relative outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500
  3. monthly investor asset expansion
  4. favorable risk/reward characteristics. 

Contact us with questions or for additional information.