Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Deere & Company (DE) appears to be resuming its July 2020 major uptrend amid coincident quarterly relative outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX).  A sustained rise above the $359.93 area would help confirm this and would target an additional 15% rise to $440.00per share.  This is an Asbury Momentum trade idea.

Analysis and Rationale

Deere & Company (DE), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes various equipment worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. Deere & Company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.

The upper panel of Chart 1 below plots DE daily since November 2020 along with its 200- and 50-day moving averages, widely-watched major and minor trend proxies.  The lower panel displays a corresponding daily relative performance chart of DE versus the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX, blue) along with its 63-day moving average (green, quarterly, our Strategic time period).

Chart 1

The rightmost green highlights in the upper panel show that DE appears to be resuming its July 2020 major uptrend, as defined by its 200-day MA, following last week’s test of the 50-day MA.  Meanwhile, DE’s current trend of quarterly relative outperformance versus SPX as shown in the lower panel is also being tested.  The other green highlights show that similar tests of the Strategic relative outperformance trend on Feb 18th, Jan 27th, and Dec 29th resulted in the resumption of the trends in both panels.  A sustained rise above the 50-day MA, currently situated at $359.93, would help to confirm the outright uptrend has resumed and would target an additional 15% rise to $440.00 per share. 

Table 1 below shows that considering the aforementioned upside target and a protective stop placed below the $365.60 area, a long entry price of $382.82 would provide a 1:3.3 risk/reward ratio (risking $1.00 to make $3.30) with an initial risk of 4.5%.

Table 1


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