Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF (SPDW) is in the early stages of a Feb 5th major bullish trend change amid monthly asset expansion and quarterly relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPY).  Together, these factors establish favorable conditions for more outright strength and relative outperformance by developed markets.  The bullish implications of this idea will remain valid above SPDW 35.77.

Emerging Major Bullish Trend Change In SPDW Amid Asset Expansion & Relative Outperformance vs. SPX

The upper panel of Chart 1 below shows that the SPDR Portfolio Developed World ex-US ETF (SPDW) is in an emerging major bullish trend change as indicated by its Feb 5th rise above its 200-day moving average, a widely-watched major trend proxy.  The middle panel shows that the total net assets invested in SPDW (AUM) expanded above their 21-day MA as of Jan 17th to indicate a trend of monthly expansion.  Expanding assets indicate bullish conviction in higher prices.  The lower panel shows that SPDW has been outperforming the S&P 500 on a 63-day quarterly basis since Feb 4th to indicate a monthly trend of quarterly relative outperformance.

As long as these three conditions remain intact, SPDW is likely to continue rising/outperforming in the weeks ahead.

Chart 1

Current Sector & Industry Group Ideas

Table 1 below is also accessible via the Asbury ETF Trade Ideas rectangle at the top of the Research Center.

Table 1

Click the table to make it larger