Following The Money with Asbury Research is a free report that we publish to stay in contact with individuals and businesses that have inquired about our company and services, and to educate them on our data-driven approach to investing. It includes our Following The Money podcast below. Please Contact Us to comment on this report or to request additional information.
This bi-weekly podcast provides the latest update and overview of our data-driven models:
- the Asbury 6 for Risk Management
- the Correction Protection Model (CPM) for Wealth Preservation
- the SEAF (Sector ETF Asset Flows) Model for Sector Rotation
- the CARP (Cross Asset Relative Performance) Model for Relative Performance
- the US vs. The World Model for Global Asset Allocation
These models collectively determine two things: 1) when to be invested, and 2) where to be invested.
This Week’s Focus: The SEAF Model
This week, with the S&P 500 trading in a sideways, non-trending environment since December, our focus is on the “where to be invested” part of the equation.
The graphic below displays our SEAF (Sector ETF Asst Flows) Model updated through the end of last week. The SEAF Model “follows the money” in and out of the 11 Sector SPDRs to determine where investor assets are going and where they are coming from in US stock market sectors.
The premise of the model is to invest in the sectors that the money is going to and to avoid the sectors that the money is leaving. The Ranking column sorts the entire table of 11 sector ETFs according to the sum of rankings in the Trading (weekly), Tactical (monthly), and Strategic (quarterly) categories, from largest inflows to largest outflows. The lower the Ranking number, the stronger the trend of asset flows going into that sector.
Click the graphic above to make it larger on your screen.
The model currently shows that the three best-ranked sectors are all defensive: Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Utilities. Equally interesting is that the next-best three sectors are all typically offensive: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary.
This underscores the indecision that we can see in the S&P 500 as investors are making aggressive bets in both the most Risk On and Risk Off parts of the market. The silver lining in all of this is that these extended periods of indecision typically become the springboard for the next extended directional trend.
More information on all Asbury Research data-driven models is available by Clicking Here.
Asbury Research subscribers can get more detail on our latest analysis, and updates to our quantitative models, by logging into the Research Center.
Click the image below to view John Kosar’s March 15th interview by Investors Business Daily.
Disclaimer: This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.