Be Prepared For A Tough 1st Quarter

Following The Money With Asbury Research is a free podcast and report that we use to stay in contact with individuals and businesses that have expressed interest in our research and services, and to educate them on our data-driven approach to investing.  Contact Us to request additional information. 

This bi-weekly podcast provides the latest update and overview of our data-driven models:

  • the Asbury 6 for Tactical Risk Management
  • the Correction Protection Model (CPM) for Wealth Preservation
  • the SEAF (Sector ETF Asset Flows) Model for Sector Rotation
  • the CARP (Cross Asset Relative Performance) Model for Domestic Asset Allocation
  • the US vs. The World Model for Global Asset Allocation

These models collectively answer the two most important questions for investors:

  1. when to be invested, and
  2. where to be invested.

Our Latest “Following The Money” Market Metric To Watch

In addition to our bi-weekly Following The Money Podcast, we also choose one chart, Asbury Research model, or data series and accompanying excerpt from our premium research that we believe may best reflect the current condition of the US financial market.  This week, we have selected 1st Quarter seasonality in the S&P 500 (SPX).

The chart below shows that the first week of January is the seasonally strongest of the entire 1st Quarter based on data since 1957.

S&P 500: 1st Quarter Seasonality Since 1957

The chart also shows that, aside from some sporadic and modest strength during the final week of January and the second week of February, seasonally remains generally weak until the middle to latter part of March.

So, considering the US stock market’s current over-extended condition (subscribers can get more details about this in the Research Center), we will view the Asbury 6‘s next shift to a Negative status as being especially significant. 

Click the image below to view John Kosar’s December 14th video for StocksCharts.com.

 

Asbury Research subscribers can get more detail on our latest analysis, and updates to our quantitative models, by logging into the Research Center.

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Disclosure/Disclaimer: The information on this website is provided solely for informational purposes and is not intended to be an offer to sell securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The strategies employed in managing this and other model portfolios may involve algorithmic techniques such as trend analysis, relative strength, moving averages, various momentum, and related strategies. There is no assurance that these strategies and techniques will yield positive outcomes or prevent losses. Past performance as indicated from historical back-testing is hypothetical in nature and does not involve actual client portfolios, does not consider cash flows or market events, and is not predictive of future performance. The model is managed by contemporaneously recording hypothetical trades. Such trades are not live trades and are not influenced by emotional or subjective reactions to extraneous market, economic, political and related factors. The performance for such model(s) is derived from utilizing a variety of technical trading strategies and techniques. Technical trading models are mathematically driven based upon historical data and trends of domestic and foreign market trading activity, including various industry and sector trading statistics within such markets. Technical trading models utilize mathematical algorithms to attempt to identify when markets are likely to increase or decrease and identify appropriate entry and exit points. The primary risk of technical trading models is that historical trends and past performance cannot predict future trends and there is no assurance that the mathematical algorithms employed are designed properly, new data is accurately incorporated, or the software can accurately predict future market, industry, and sector performance.  Asbury Research LLC does not and cannot provide any assurance that an investment in the model portfolios will yield profitable outcomes. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial, and different types of investment vehicles, including ETFs, involve varying degrees of risk.  Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. An investor’s personal goals, risk tolerance, income needs, portfolio size, asset allocation and securities preferences, income tax, and estate planning strategy should be reviewed and taken into consideration before committing to a specific investment program. Please consult with your financial advisor to discuss the appropriateness of any strategy prior to investing. All investments involve risk. Principal is subject to loss, and actual returns may be negative. Returns are not guaranteed in any way and may vary widely from year to year. 

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