Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has recently set new all-time highs as well as a new relative high versus the S&P 500 (SPY), clearing the way for more outright strength by GDX and other precious metals related assets.  This adds to our existing Aug 6th long/overweight idea in the SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (RING), which has since risen by 22% outright while outperforming SPY by 18%.

GDX: Making New All-Time Highs Amid Relative Outperformance

The upper panel of Chart 1 below indicates that the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is currently in the midst of minor and major uptrends, as defined by its 50- and 200-day moving averages, and is making new all-time highs as of Sep 8th as it has exceeded its previous 66.98 September 2011 high.  The lower panel shows that GDX  is in the midst of an Aug 1st trend of quarterly relative outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500 (SPY) and has more recently exceeded its previous Apr 21st relative performance high on Aug 29th.  Together, these metrics indicate favorable conditions for GDX, and other precious metals-related assets, to continue their recent strength. 

Chart 1

Current Sector & Industry Group Ideas

Table 1 below is also accessible via the Asbury ETF Trade Ideas rectangle at the top of the Research Center.

Click the table to make it larger

Performance Metrics Through June 30th 2025

Table 2 below breaks down the 96 individual trade ideas as published in real time via our Asbury ETF Trade Ideas from March 17th, 2023, through June 30th, 2025, which is a little more than 2 years.  Our Asbury ETF Trade Ideas are accessible directly from the Research Center and available via the lower right rectangle at the top of that page.

These ideas are intended to be potential short-term trading opportunities rather than long-term investments.  However, many users use them to provide exceptional, low-risk entry points into ETFs that they want to add as long-term portfolio holdings.

In addition, since the 27 months of data shown below indicate 1) how long our average holding period has been (18 days) and 2) what our average percent gain has been (4.6%) for winning trades, options traders may consider using these data to purchase out-of-the-money calls with less than a month left until expiration.

Table 2

Glossary Of Financial Terms
Performance Highlights
  • the percentage of winning trades is higher than the percentage of losing trades.
  • the average winning trade is almost double the average losing trade.
  • the average winning trade length (in days) is more than twice as long as the average losing trade length.
  • During the past 27 months, our model has, on average, produced one new trade idea per week.
How We Choose Which ETFs To Trade

Our selection process is to scan a broad list of ETFs daily, looking for four characteristics of successful trades:

  1. a positive major price trend
  2. monthly relative outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500
  3. monthly investor asset expansion
  4. favorable risk/reward characteristics. 

Contact us with questions or for additional information.