Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (CUT) is in the midst of an emerging major bullish trend change amid monthly expansion in investor assets and quarterly relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPY).  Together, these factors establish favorable conditions for more outright strength and relative outperformance by CUT and other materials, paper, and lumber related assets.  

CUT: Emerging Major Bullish Trend Change Amid Expanding Assets, Relative Outperformance

The Invesco MSCI Global Timber ETF (CUT) is a passively managed ETF, launched in 2007, that tracks the MSCI ACWI IMI Timber Select Capped Index. It invests in companies across the globe involved in the ownership, management, and production of forests and timber-related products. The fund focuses on materials, paper, and forest product sectors.

The upper panel of Chart 1 below shows that CUT is in the midst of an emerging major bullish trend change, as evidenced by its Jan 9th rise above its 200-day moving average (a major trend proxy).  The middle panel shows that the total net assets invested in CUT (AUM) are currently edging above their 21-day MA to suggest an emerging new trend of monthly expansion.  Expanding assets are characteristic of sustainable price advances.  The lower panel shows that CUT is in a Dec 31st trend of quarterly relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPY).  

As long as these three trends remain intact, CUT is likely to continue rising in the weeks ahead.

Chart 1

Current Sector & Industry Group Ideas

Table 1 below is also accessible via the Asbury ETF Trade Ideas rectangle at the top of the Research Center.

Table 1

Click the table to make it larger

Performance Metrics Through Q4 2025

Table 2 below breaks down the 120 individual trade ideas published in real time via our Asbury ETF Trade Ideas from March 17th, 2023, through January 9th, 2026, for a total of 34 months.  Our Asbury ETF Trade Ideas are accessible directly from the Research Center, available via the lower-right rectangle at the top of that page.

These ideas are intended to be potential short-term trading opportunities rather than long-term investments.  However, many users use them to provide exceptional, low-risk entry points into ETFs that they want to add as long-term portfolio holdings.

In addition, since the 340 months of data shown below indicate 1) how long our average holding period has been (20 days) and 2) what our average percent gain has been (5.5%) for winning trades, options traders may consider using these data to purchase out-of-the-money calls with a month left until expiration.

Table 2

Glossary Of Financial Terms
Performance Highlights
  • the percentage of winning trades is higher than the percentage of losing trades.
  • the average winning trade is more than double the average losing trade.
  • the average winning trade length (in days) is more than twice as long as the average losing trade length.
  • During the past 34 months, our model has, on average, produced approximately one new trade idea per week.
How We Choose Which ETFs To Trade

Our selection process is to scan a broad list of ETFs daily, looking for four characteristics of successful trades:

  1. a positive major price trend
  2. monthly relative outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500
  3. monthly investor asset expansion
  4. favorable risk/reward characteristics. 

Contact us with questions or for additional information.