Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) appears to be resuming its December 2020 major uptrend amid coincident quarterly relative outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX).  A sustained rise above the $50.18 area would help confirm this and would target an additional 18% rise to $62.00 per share.  This is an Asbury Momentum trade idea.

Analysis and Rationale

ONEOK, Inc. (OKE), together with its subsidiaries, engages in gathering, processing, storage, and transportation of natural gas in the United States. It operates through Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids, and Natural Gas Pipelines segments. The company owns natural gas gathering pipelines and processing plants in the Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain regions. It also gathers, treats, fractionates, and transports natural gas liquids (NGL), as well as stores, markets, and distributes NGL products. The company owns NGL gathering and distribution pipelines in Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming, and Colorado; terminal and storage facilities in Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, and Illinois; and NGL distribution and refined petroleum products pipelines in Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, as well as owns and operates truck- and rail-loading, and -unloading facilities connected to NGL fractionation, storage, and pipeline assets. It serves integrated and independent exploration and production companies; NGL and natural gas gathering and processing companies; crude oil and natural gas production companies; propane distributors; municipalities; ethanol producers; and petrochemical, refining, and NGL marketing companies, as well as natural gas distribution companies, electric generation facilities, industrial companies, producers, processors, and marketing companies. The company was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.

The upper panel of Chart 1 below plots OKE daily since October 2020 along with its 200- and 50-day moving averages, widely-watched major and minor trend proxies.  The lower panel displays a corresponding daily relative performance chart of OKE versus the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX, blue) along with its 63-day moving average (green, quarterly, our Strategic time period).

Chart 1

The rightmost green highlights in the upper panel show that OKE appears to be resuming its December 2020 major uptrend, as defined by its 200-day MA, following its Apr 23rd test of the 50-day MA.  Meanwhile, OKE’s trend of Strategic relative outperformance versus SPX as shown in the lower panel also appears to be resuming.  The other green highlights show that similar tests of the Strategic relative outperformance trend on Feb 1st and Nov 6th also resulted in the resumption of positive trends in both panels.  A sustained rise above the 50-day MA, currently situated at $50.18, would help to confirm the outright uptrend has resumed and would target an additional 18% rise to $62.00 per share. 

Table 1 below shows that considering the aforementioned upside target and a protective stop placed below the $50.00 area, a long entry price of $52.65 would provide a 1:3.5 risk/reward ratio (risking $1.00 to make $3.50) with an initial risk of 5.0%.

Table 1


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