The PRISM Report: A Clearer View of Global Investment Trends
The Prism Report is your streamlined, data-driven guide to uncovering opportunities across global markets and asset classes. Built around Asbury Research’s foundational “three-legged stool” approach of trend, relative performance, and asset flows, this tool offers a concise and comprehensive way to identify where capital is being rewarded—quickly and clearly.
PRISM, which stands for Portfolio Review of Investment Sectors and Markets, is published at the end of the week. You can find the PRISM Report right in the middle of the Research Center, listed chronologically with other reports, such as Keys to This Week and The Weekly Wrap-Up. You can pull up all recently published PRISM Reports by typing “PRISM” in the Search By Keyword box located on the right border of the Research Center.
PRISM currently identifies Emerging Markets as the only asset class with a Positive/Bullish reading across all four time periods.
Key Observations
Emerging Markets (EEM)
EEM remains the only asset class showing green cells across all four time periods. It is making new all-time highs this week with very short-term price support at the 21-day moving average. On a relative basis versus the S&P 500, EEM continues a strong uptrend that began on August 5th, outperforming the S&P by 4.6% since then.
Gold (GLD) & U.S. Small Cap (IWM)
Last week, we noted signs of near-term fatigue in IWM, and that weakness has now been confirmed with red cells in the Short- and Micro-Term timeframes. IWM has been attempting to rise and remain above major overhead resistance at 244.46, its November 2021 all-time high, for the past five weeks, but has thus far been unable to do so. How this benchmark level is resolved is likely to determine the next one to several month directional move for Small Caps.
GLD began the week by closing at a new all-time high of $403.15 before pulling back 8.6% to find support at its own 21-day moving average. Despite this correction, Gold continues to outperform the S&P 500 by 14% since September 2nd, when the current outperformance cycle began. Given the strength of GLD’s prior advance, this week’s pullback has only impacted the Micro-Term, leaving longer timeframes intact. Keep a close watch on the 21-day moving average, which remains a key technical support level for Gold.
U.S. Technology (QQQ) & Global Equities ex-U.S. (SPDW)
Both QQQ and SPDW turned yellow on the Micro-Term, reflecting slight short-term underperformance versus the S&P 500. Asset flows for both ETFs remain positive but have slowed modestly in the Micro-Term as well. Each recently achieved new all-time highs, and both appear poised to retest those levels in the coming days. Which asset class reasserts leadership first may offer valuable insight into the broader market’s direction.
Takeaways
PRISM highlights Emerging Markets as the leading asset class. Many asset classes are currently testing their 21-day moving averages from above, signaling a minor decision point in the broader market. This aligns with the “blinking” conditions in the Asbury 6 and the quick shifts between Risk Off and Risk On in the Correction Protection Model (CPM), suggesting the market is in a state of decision—whether or not to continue the prevailing trend.
Overall, PRISM remains equity-leaning, though GBTC’s hesitation still reflects limited full-risk appetite among managers. Keep a close eye this week on the 21-day moving averages of the major equity asset classes and the relative performance of AGG (Aggregate Bond) asset class vs the S&P 500.
Both the Asbury 6 and the CPM are Risk On, and we continue to trust our data-driven approach to stay on the right side of the market.
About PRISM
At the heart of Prism is a simple but critical formula for success: positive price trend, positive relative performance, and positive asset flows. These three factors—trend, performance, and conviction—are the cornerstones of identifying sustainable market leadership.
We’ve expanded this concept across four key time frames:
- Micro (7 days)
- Short (21 days)
- Medium (63 days)
- Long (200 days)
This multi-horizon approach provides investors with a dynamic lens through which to view the market in a multidimensional way. Why does this matter?
- Trend: If the price isn’t appreciating, we’re not interested. Positive price momentum is non-negotiable.
- Relative Performance: If it isn’t beating the S&P 500, there’s an opportunity cost. Investors deserve better than average performance.
- Asset Flows: Capital inflow indicates directional conviction—real money moving with purpose. It’s the ultimate vote of confidence from institutional players with skin in the game.