The PRISM Report: A Clearer View of Global Investment Trends

The Prism Report is your streamlined, data-driven guide to uncovering opportunities across global markets and asset classes. Built around Asbury Research’s foundational “three-legged stool” approach of trend, relative performance, and asset flows, this tool offers a concise and comprehensive way to identify where capital is being rewarded—quickly and clearly.

PRISM, which stands for Portfolio Review of Investment Sectors and Markets, is published at the end of the week.  You can find the PRISM Report right down the middle of the Research Center, listed chronologically with other reports like Keys To This Week.  You can pull up all recently published PRISM Reports by typing “PRISM” in the Search By Keyword box located on the right border of the Research Center.

PRISM currently does not have any asset classes with a positive/bullish reading across all four time periods.

Key Observations

Global Equities Ex US (SPDW)

SPDW closed at new all-time highs on Friday, August 15th.  The only drag is its Medium-Term relative performance versus SPY; if that trend turns higher, SPDW would be green (positive) across all four timeframes, setting the stage for the next leg up.  The ETF has minor support at $41.58, the July 23rd high, and internal strength is broad: 33 of the 41 MSCI country ETFs we track are outperforming the S&P 500 on a relative basis.  This signals a meaningful shift toward weakening U.S. stock leadership.

Emerging Markets (EEM)

EEM remains capped by overhead resistance at 50.89 and is currently testing its 21-day moving average, which has been a critical support level since April 22nd.  A sustained breakdown below it would be significant.  On the relative chart versus SPY, EEM is compressed between the 21-day (monthly) and 63-day (quarterly) moving averages.  A significant and sustained rise above the 63-day MA would suggest an emerging new overweight opportunity.

Interest Rates (AGG)

AGG is green only on the Micro-Term, but its setup is becoming more important as leadership from U.S. Technology and Crypto begin to fade.  If AGG can broaden its outperformance versus SPY, it may be signaling a negative directional shift in the stock market.  Price resistance sits at $99.23, with several additional minor overhead resistance levels above that.  This aggregate bond index is an asset class to watch closely should equity leadership erode.

Commodities (DBC) & Crude Oil (USO)

DBC and USO are edging above their 200-day moving averages, which could indicate emerging major bullish trend changes.  However, like AGG, they are currently only green (positive) on the Micro-Term.  Historically, a move into commodities often reflects caution in equities due to their lack of correlation.  While we don’t yet see a full-fledged “flight to commodities,” the early micro-term strength suggests rising apprehension in equity markets.

Takeaways

PRISM is suggesting an important inflection point in the financial markets.  U.S. equity leadership is weakening, with Global Equities beginning to outperform, while commodities and bonds are showing early signs of life.  Emerging weakness in GBTC (Bitcoin) relative to U.S. stocks points to softening risk appetite, and trends across asset classes remain in their early stages.  For now, the lack of clear leadership underscores that markets are searching for direction.  What emerges from here will likely shape the next investable trends.

About PRISM

At the heart of Prism is a simple but critical formula for success: positive price trend, positive relative performance, and positive asset flows. These three factors—trend, performance, and conviction—are the cornerstones of identifying sustainable market leadership.

We’ve expanded this concept across four key time frames:

  • Micro (7 days)
  • Short (21 days)
  • Medium (63 days)
  • Long (200 days)

This multi-horizon approach gives investors a dynamic lens through which to view the market in a multi-dimensional way. Why does this matter?

  • Trend: If the price isn’t appreciating, we’re not interested. Positive price momentum is non-negotiable.
  • Relative Performance: If it isn’t beating the S&P 500, there’s an opportunity cost. Investors deserve better than average performance.
  • Asset Flows: Capital inflow indicates directional conviction—real money moving with purpose. It’s the ultimate vote of confidence from institutional players with skin in the game.