PRISM Report: Risk-On Resurgence a: Bitcoin, Tech, and Emerging Markets Lead the Charge

The PRISM Report: A Clearer View of Global Investment Trends

The Prism Report is your streamlined, data-driven guide to uncovering opportunities across global markets and asset classes. Built around Asbury Research’s foundational “three-legged stool” approach of trend, relative performance, and asset flows, this tool offers a concise and comprehensive way to identify where capital is being rewarded—quickly and clearly.

PRISM, which stands for Portfolio Review of Investment Sectors and Markets, is published at the end of the week.  You can find the PRISM Report right down the middle of the Research Center, listed chronologically with other reports like Keys To This Week.  You can pull up all recently published PRISM Reports by typing “PRISM” in the Search By Keyword box located on the right border of the Research Center.

Crypto currently has a bullish reading across all four monitored time frames.

Key Observations

• Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC): GBTC hit an all-time high on July 14th at $96.16.  Bitcoin is the only category this week showing strength in all four time periods.  GBTC is currently bumping up against its all-time relative performance high versus the S&P 500 (SPY), which we view as indirect overhead resistance.  A relative breakout by GBTC vs SPY will likely clear the way for even more outright and relative strength by Bitcoin.
• Emerging Markets (EEM): Emerging Markets continue a strong uptrend that began on April 8th. EEM is also one category away from being green across the board.  All that’s missing is Medium Term relative performance, which is currently being tested. The Prism Report continues to skew toward Risk-On, and EEM is part of that skew.
• US Technology (QQQ): QQQ is currently trading at all-time highs.  Overall, US Tech is showing strength across all time periods except the Micro Term, where slowing Asset Flows have turned the category to yellow.
• Gold (GLD): Gold has been trading in a relatively tight range since April 22nd, which followed a 30% advance from the beginning of the year. We’re seeing gold start to show a little life in the Micro Term, but we’ll need more strength in the Short and Medium Term periods to make another run at the April 22nd all-time high.
• US Dollar (UUP): The UUP reached a 12-month high on December 19, 2024, but has since declined by over 10%, bottoming out on July 1. Since Dollar weakness has historically coincided with a declining stock market, we will be watching closely to see if current Micro Term strength in UUP can extend into other time periods.

Takeaway

PRISM continues to favor Risk-On assets and equities, with both GBTC and QQQ recently hitting all-time highs and EEM reaching multi-year highs. While the movements in GLD and the US Dollar don’t currently threaten this market alignment, they are worth watching if those trends begin to spread into other timeframes.

About PRISM

At the heart of Prism is a simple but critical formula for success: positive price trend, positive relative performance, and positive asset flows. These three factors—trend, performance, and conviction—are the cornerstones of identifying sustainable market leadership.

We’ve expanded this concept across four key time frames:

• Micro (7 days)
• Short (21 days)
• Medium (63 days)
• Long (200 days)

This multi-horizon approach gives investors a dynamic lens through which to view the market in a multi-dimensional way. Why does this matter?

• Trend: If the price isn’t appreciating, we’re not interested. Positive price momentum is non-negotiable.
• Relative Performance: If it isn’t beating the S&P 500, there’s an opportunity cost. Investors deserve better than average performance.
• Asset Flows: Capital inflow indicates directional conviction—real money moving with purpose. It’s the ultimate vote of confidence from institutional players with skin in the game.