The PRISM Report: A Clearer View of Global Investment Trends

The Prism Report is your streamlined, data-driven guide to uncovering opportunities across global markets and asset classes. Built around Asbury Research’s foundational “three-legged stool” approach of trend, relative performance, and asset flows, this tool offers a concise and comprehensive way to identify where capital is being rewarded—quickly and clearly.

PRISM, which stands for Portfolio Review of Investment Sectors and Markets, is published at the end of the week.  You can find the PRISM Report right in the middle of the Research Center, listed chronologically with other reports, such as Keys to This Week and The Weekly Wrap-Up.  You can pull up all recently published PRISM Reports by typing “PRISM” in the Search By Keyword box located on the right border of the Research Center.

PRISM currently does not have any asset classes with a positive/bullish reading across all four time periods.

Key Observations

US Small Cap (IWM)

IWM is showing strength in three of the four PRISM time periods, with the only exception being long-term relative performance. Last week, IWM broke through a key resistance level at $230.70 and now appears poised to test its next major resistance at $244.46—the all-time high for the ETF. This breakout marks the first period of sustained relative outperformance by Small Caps versus the broader market since November 2024.

Gold (GLD)

GLD is preparing for its fifth attempt to break through major overhead resistance at $317.63, the Apr 22nd all-time high.  Since then, gold has remained relatively flat, down about 1%, compared with a 25% gain in the S&P 500 over the same period. While GLD has occasionally shown up in the PRISM Report on the Micro-Term timeframe, a decisive breakout above $317.63 would be required to turn all four time periods positive.

Crypto (GBTC)

We continue to view crypto, as represented by GBTC, as a gauge of risk appetite. While the S&P 500 continues to set fresh all-time highs, crypto has not kept pace. Given the relatively tight and stable positive linear correlation between SPY and GBTC over the past five years, we will continue to monitor this space as a potential leading indicator for broader market direction.

Takeaways

PRISM continues to emphasize a lack of clear leadership in the market. The recent strength in small caps suggests managers may be rotating into new areas in search of returns, even as the S&P 500 makes new highs. However, waning risk appetite—evidenced by negative trends in crypto and fading leadership in U.S. technology—raises questions about the durability of this uptrend.

Meanwhile, a sustained breakout in GLD above its major resistance could signal rising fear and risk aversion in the market. As always, we will rely on the Asbury 6 (A6) and Correction Protection Model (CPM) to help navigate these conditions, as many of the current short-term trends remain fragile and vulnerable to reversal, reflecting weak flows and lingering apprehension among managers as the market inches higher.

About PRISM

At the heart of Prism is a simple but critical formula for success: positive price trend, positive relative performance, and positive asset flows. These three factors—trend, performance, and conviction—are the cornerstones of identifying sustainable market leadership.

We’ve expanded this concept across four key time frames:

  • Micro (7 days)
  • Short (21 days)
  • Medium (63 days)
  • Long (200 days)

This multi-horizon approach gives investors a dynamic lens through which to view the market in a multi-dimensional way. Why does this matter?

  • Trend: If the price isn’t appreciating, we’re not interested. Positive price momentum is non-negotiable.
  • Relative Performance: If it isn’t beating the S&P 500, there’s an opportunity cost. Investors deserve better than average performance.
  • Asset Flows: Capital inflow indicates directional conviction—real money moving with purpose. It’s the ultimate vote of confidence from institutional players with skin in the game.