The PRISM Report: A Clearer View of Global Investment Trends
The Prism Report is your streamlined, data-driven guide to uncovering opportunities across global markets and asset classes. Built around Asbury Research’s foundational “three-legged stool” approach of trend, relative performance, and asset flows, this tool offers a concise and comprehensive way to identify where capital is being rewarded—quickly and clearly.
PRISM, which stands for Portfolio Review of Investment Sectors and Markets, is published at the end of the week. You can find the PRISM Report right in the middle of the Research Center, listed chronologically with other reports, such as Keys to This Week and The Weekly Wrap-Up. You can pull up all recently published PRISM Reports by typing “PRISM” in the Search By Keyword box located on the right border of the Research Center.
PRISM currently identifies Gold, Emerging Markets, and US Small Cap as the three asset classes with a Positive/Bullish reading across all four time periods.
Key Observations
Gold (GLD)
Gold remains the dominant leader in this market cycle, setting new all-time highs again today. The next key level of indirect resistance appears on the relative performance chart of GLD vs. the S&P 500 chart, as GLD approaches its April 21st relative high — currently about 3.5% above current levels. Asset flows continue to strengthen with no meaningful signs of slowing.
Emerging Markets (EEM)
EEM remains All Green for the second consecutive week, outperforming the S&P 500 by roughly 1.0% over that period. The ETF is testing minor overhead resistance at $54.69, its Oct 7th year-to-date high. A decisive breakout above this level could signal broadening investor interest in emerging markets.
U.S. Small Cap (IWM)
IWM has been negotiating its 244.46 Nov 8th high for the past month, but has yet to confirm a clear breakout higher. While asset flows remain positive across all four time frames, inflows appear to be slowing on the Short- and Micro-Term, which warns of some near-term fatigue within the small-cap space.
U.S. Interest Rates (AGG)
Last week, we noted that AGG had established a positive price trend amid asset expansion in all four time frames, as it had recently risen above its previous overhead resistance at 100.55, the April 4th benchmark high. However, AGG has not yet confirmed a new trend of quarterly relative outperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPY), which, should this occur, would warn that an overdue US stock market correction is emerging.
Takeaways
PRISM highlights a continued alignment between Equities and Gold, with managers increasingly turning to Emerging Markets and Small Caps in search of alpha. The Gold trade remains strong, up 21% since its Sep 2nd technical breakout higher.
U.S. Technology continues to contribute to overall equity strength, though recent minor breaks in price and relative performance in the Short-Term warrant further confirmation before drawing conclusions.
Meanwhile, the recent weakness in our risk gauge GBTC, with three time frames now in the red, amid early signs of relative outperformance by AGG, could indicate growing market caution. We’ll look for that relative outperformance by AGG to extend into the Medium-Term to help separate signal from noise.
About PRISM
At the heart of Prism is a simple but critical formula for success: positive price trend, positive relative performance, and positive asset flows. These three factors—trend, performance, and conviction—are the cornerstones of identifying sustainable market leadership.
We’ve expanded this concept across four key time frames:
- Micro (7 days)
- Short (21 days)
- Medium (63 days)
- Long (200 days)
This multi-horizon approach provides investors with a dynamic lens through which to view the market in a multidimensional way. Why does this matter?
- Trend: If the price isn’t appreciating, we’re not interested. Positive price momentum is non-negotiable.
- Relative Performance: If it isn’t beating the S&P 500, there’s an opportunity cost. Investors deserve better than average performance.
- Asset Flows: Capital inflow indicates directional conviction—real money moving with purpose. It’s the ultimate vote of confidence from institutional players with skin in the game.