S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) Poised For More Strength, Outperformance

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) is amid favorable technical / quantitative conditions to continue its recent trend of outright strenth amid relative outperformance versus the benchmark S&P 500.

Current Sector & Industry Group Ideas

Table 1 below is also accessible via the Sector & Industry Group Ideas rectangle at the top of the Research Center.

Table 1

Click the table to make it larger

This table also regularly appears in our weekly Keys To This Week: Sector & Industry Groups report published on Monday mornings.

Analysis and Rationale

The upper panel of Chart 1 below plots the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) daily since May along with its 200-day moving average, a widely-watched major trend proxy. The lower panel plots the corresponding daily relative performance of GSG versus the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) along with its 63-day moving average, which we use to identify the Strategic (quarterly) trend of relative performance versus the broad market.

Chart 1

The green highlights in the upper panel show that GLD initially moved above its 200-day moving average on Jly 19th to indicate an emerging major bullish trend change, and has subsequently made two successful tests of that trend on Aug 16th and Oct 5th. The lower panel shows that GLD is also in a Jly 21st trend of Strategic relative outperformance versus SPY, one which was successfully tested and held on Oct 11th.

The upper panel of Chart 2 below plots GSG daily since May with its 50-day moving average (minor trend proxy), with a corresponding chart of the daily total net assets invested in GSG (AUM) and their 21-day moving average in the lower panel. We use the 21-day MA to determine these assets’ Tactical (monthly) trend.

Chart 2

The rightmost green highlights in the upper panel point out that GLD has coincidentally risen back above its 50-day MA over the past few days to suggests its previous July minor uptrend is resuming. The rightmost green highlights in the lower panel indicate an emerging trend of monthly expansion that is characteristic of Tactical price advances. The other two green highlighted areas in the lower panel show that similar periods of monthly asset expansion in July-August and September fueled the previous two price advances in GSG.

This combination of a bullish major trend, Strategic relative outperformance versus the S&P 500, and Tactical asset expansion indicate favorable conditions for a continuation of recent strength and relative outperformance by GSG and the commodity-related assets it represents.

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S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) Poised For More Strength, Outperformance

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Current Sector & Industry Group Ideas

Analysis and Rationale

Asbury Research

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S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust (GSG) Poised For More Strength, Outperformance

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Current Sector & Industry Group Ideas

Analysis and Rationale

Asbury Research

Asbury Research subscribers get more detail on our latest analysis, and updates to our quantitative models

Schedule A 15-Minute Zoom Meeting With Us To Get More Information >>>

Asbury Research subscribers get more detail on our latest analysis,
and updates to our quantitative models