Special Report: Be Patient & Know Your Levels

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) made its 9th successful 2021 test of primary Tactical support earlier today, this despite a Negative reading in our Asbury 6 risk management model. This support is currently at SPX 4432 and represents the index’s 50-day moving average. It would take a decline significantly below primary Tactical support on a closing basis, corroborated by a shift to Risk Off by our Correction Protection (wealth preservation) Model, to help confirm that a downside correction is underway. Until then, be patient, know where primary Tactical support is, and wait for our models to confirm.

Introduction

Our Asbury 6 risk management model shifted to Negative as of close yesterday, Sep 14th, and we alerted subscribers to that before the market opening this morning. However, our Correction Protection Model remains on an Aug 25th Risk On status, and primary Tactical support at 4427 in the S&P 500 (SPX), as indicated in Monday’s Keys To This Week report, was tested and held yesterday Sep 14th as SPX traded as low as 4435 before rebounding thus far today.

The chart below shows that primary Tactical support has since been adjusted slightly upward, to SPX 4432, and represents the 50-day moving average. To date, the 50-day MA has been tested and held 9 times since Jan 29th, yesterday and today’s test being the most recent test. One day this support will be broken and a correction will begin, but for the time being the current November 2020 Tactical uptrend remains intact.

S&P 500 (SPX) since January

To review, a Negative reading by the Asbury 6 is not intended to be a signal to sell stocks but rather as a warning signal that the market is weakening internally. It is analogous to a doctor’s visit that indicates the patient’s blood pressure is high and the pulse is elevated. Although it’s probably not enough to send the patient to the emergency room, it is an indication that the patient’s health is suspect and that more tests or attention are in order. That is where the US stock market is right now.

A decline significantly below primary Tactical support on a closing basis, corroborated by a shift to Risk Off by the Correction Protection Model, would be necessary to help confirm that a downside correction is indeed underway.

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Disclosure/Disclaimer: The information on this website is provided solely for informational purposes and is not intended to be an offer to sell securities or a solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The strategies employed in managing this and other model portfolios may involve algorithmic techniques such as trend analysis, relative strength, moving averages, various momentum, and related strategies. There is no assurance that these strategies and techniques will yield positive outcomes or prevent losses. Past performance as indicated from historical back-testing is hypothetical in nature and does not involve actual client portfolios, does not consider cash flows or market events, and is not predictive of future performance. The model is managed by contemporaneously recording hypothetical trades. Such trades are not live trades and are not influenced by emotional or subjective reactions to extraneous market, economic, political and related factors. The performance for such model(s) is derived from utilizing a variety of technical trading strategies and techniques. Technical trading models are mathematically driven based upon historical data and trends of domestic and foreign market trading activity, including various industry and sector trading statistics within such markets. Technical trading models utilize mathematical algorithms to attempt to identify when markets are likely to increase or decrease and identify appropriate entry and exit points. The primary risk of technical trading models is that historical trends and past performance cannot predict future trends and there is no assurance that the mathematical algorithms employed are designed properly, new data is accurately incorporated, or the software can accurately predict future market, industry, and sector performance. Asbury Research LLC does not and cannot provide any assurance that an investment in the model portfolios will yield profitable outcomes. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial, and different types of investment vehicles, including ETFs, involve varying degrees of risk. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. An investor’s personal goals, risk tolerance, income needs, portfolio size, asset allocation and securities preferences, income tax, and estate planning strategy should be reviewed and taken into consideration before committing to a specific investment program. Please consult with your financial advisor to discuss the appropriateness of any strategy prior to investing. All investments involve risk. Principal is subject to loss, and actual returns may be negative. Returns are not guaranteed in any way and may vary widely from year to year.

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Special Report: Be Patient & Know Your Levels

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Introduction

Asbury Research

Asbury Research subscribers get more detail on our latest analysis,
and updates to our quantitative models

Schedule A 15-Minute Zoom Meeting With Us To Get More Information >>>

Special Report: Be Patient & Know Your Levels

Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Introduction

Asbury Research

Asbury Research subscribers get more detail on our latest analysis, and updates to our quantitative models

Schedule A 15-Minute Zoom Meeting With Us To Get More Information >>>

Asbury Research subscribers get more detail on our latest analysis,
and updates to our quantitative models