Market Meeting November Upside Targets. Top Coming?


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Heading into next week, the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) remains in the midst of major and minor uptrends amid a November 5th Risk On status in our Correction Protection Model (CPM). Learn more about the Correction Protection Model (CPM) by Clicking Here.  However, many of our November upside targets are starting to be met — which warns the US stock market may be in the latter stages of its November advance.

Chart 1 below shows that the S&P 500 is now less than 1% away from the 3850 upside target we first published in our November 7th The Weekly Wrap Up (access requires subscription).  At that time, SPX was trading at 3509 and has since risen by 9%. 

Chart 1

Meanwhile, our Nov 23rd upside targets in the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and SPDR NYSE Technology ETF (XNTK) were met late last week, capturing 7% and 12% gains in about 6 weeks.  Upside targets being met often precede corrective declines.

Meanwhile, Table 1 shows that all of our Asbury 6 constituents finished Friday’s session in Positive territory.  The “A6” has been on a Positive status since November 4th

Table 1

However, the “A6” has been “blinking” red (negative) since Dec 9th , which warns the internal health of the market may be waning. We have been positive on the US stock market since April 9th, when our Asbury 6 and Correction Protection Model turned back to a Risk on / Positive status from Risk Off on February 24th.  However, we are now advising clients to be extremely careful because the market is historically over-extended and vulnerable to a particularly nasty — and overdue — decline.

How To Interpret The A6: Four or more metrics in one direction, either Positive (green) or Negative (red), indicate a Tactical bias.  The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent of the A6 turned either positive (green) or negative (red).  When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.

Our latest video below shows how we have navigated these recent market conditions in real-time.

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