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2021 Bull Market Resuming?

The Asbury 6: Back To Positive

Back on January 14th, our Asbury 6 risk management model shifted to a Negative (bearish).  The Asbury 6 is one of two in-house Tactical models that we use to answer the question: Should I be invested?  The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) subsequently collapsed by 12% into the February 24th low

More recently, following weeks of very choppy market activity, Table 1 below shows that the “A6” turned back to Positive (bullish) on March 17th.  SPX has risen by an additional 3% since then, finishing last week just above its 200-day moving average to suggest a major bullish trend change may be emerging.

Table 1: The Asbury 6

Editor’s Note: The Asbury 6 is our own quantitative risk management model which is updated daily in our Research Center.   The “A6” is a combination of six diverse market metrics that we grouped together to look beyond the day-to-day, up-and-down noise of the stock market to determine its actual health — in much the same way that a doctor first checks the patient’s vital signs during an office visit.   Four or more metrics in one direction, either Positive (green) or Negative (red), indicate a Tactical market bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent of the A6 turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.

As long as the Asbury 6 remains Positive, it will indicate the day-to-day internal condition of the market is healthy enough to support a continuation of the recent market rebound.

The SEAF Model: Still Overweight Energy

As the “A6” indicates if we should be invested, our SEAF Model answers the question: Where should we be invested? 

Table 2 below displays the SEAF Model updated through the end of last week.  SEAF is currently overweight the Energy Sector as of January 6th and, more recently, is also overweight Health Care as of March 14th.

Table 2: The SEAF Model

The SEAF Model is unique because rather than tracking performance, both outright and versus the S&P 500, it follows the money around the 11 sectors of the S&P 500.  It determines where the money is going, and where it’s coming from, in three different time frames.

Since January 6th through Friday March 25th, the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) has risen by 30.3% outright while outperforming the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 34.5%.

Energy has, by far, been the best sector performer year-to-date.  The SEAF Model helped us to get on that trend in its very early stages, just when the money started to go there but before it became readily apparent on the charts.

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Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
Asbury Research Ideas, Expertly Managed

Here is our March 25th Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized Asbury Research’s market analysis and investment ideas to professionally manage client portfolios.

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This communication is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as investment advice, or as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial asset.  No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC.  The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

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