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Market Starting To Show Some Good Signs

S&P 500 Tests/Holds Underlying Support

Two weeks ago, in our May 15th Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video, we pointed out that the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was testing important underlying support at 3854 and suggested this may be the start of a corrective rally as traders do some “bottom finishing”.   Here is the chart from that report.

S&P 500 daily through May 13, 2022

Two weeks later, SPX has since risen by 304 points or 8% from that 3854 support level.  Meanwhile, some good things are also happening “under the hood” of the market.

The Asbury 6: New Positive As Of May 26th

The Asbury 6 is our in-house Tactical model that indicates whether the US stock market is in a Risk On (staying invested or adding additional risk) or Risk Off (tightening protective stops on existing positions or reducing risk) environment.

Table 1 shows that, as of Thursday May 26th, four of the Asbury 6’s constituent metrics have turned back to green or bullish, which turns the model itself back to a Positive status.  The Asbury 6 had previously been Negative since April 12th and the S&P 500 declined by as much as 587 points or 13% since then.

Asbury 6 Tactical Model through May 27th 2022

Editor’s Note: The Asbury 6 is our own quantitative risk management model which is updated daily in our Research Center.   The “A6” is a combination of six diverse market metrics that we grouped together to look beyond the day-to-day, up-and-down noise of the stock market to determine its actual health — in much the same way that a doctor first checks the patient’s vital signs during an office visit.   Four or more metrics in one direction, either Positive (green) or Negative (red), indicate a Tactical market bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent of the A6 turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding risk to portfolios. Each negative reading adds an additional element of risk to participating in current or new investment ideas.

There are still some significant hurdles that the market has to get over to help confirm that a US market sustainable bottom is in place, which we discuss in recent reports available to subscribers in our Research Center But this is a good start.

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