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Our S&P 500 4025 Target Has Been Met. What’s Next?
S&P 500 Meets Our November 6th Upside Target
From our previous November 6th Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video:
The Bottom Line
“If the 3700 area holds as support and the S&P 500 (SPX) rallies above 3877, it would confirm an important bottom at the October lows and target an upcoming rise to 4025. If 3700 does not hold and the Asbury 6 turns negative, however, it would indicate the larger 2022 decline is resuming and warn of upcoming new lows for the year.”
The chart below, an updated version of the chart from our November 6th report, shows that the S&P 500 subsequently rallied by 9% to reach our 4025 target on November 15th.
Since then, however, the US broad market index has been drifting sideways as it negotiates major overhead resistance at 4054, the current location of the 200-day moving average which is a widely-watched major trend proxy. The chart shows that the 200-day MA previously contained the S&P 500’s rally from the June lows on August 16th, and the 2022 downtrend resumed from there.
You can tell just by looking at the chart that the market “sees” the 200-day MA now and is trying to figure out how to react to it. What happens from here will indicate whether or not the 2022 major downtrend is still valid and intact.
The Asbury 6 Remains Positive
Table 2 below shows that, through Monday November 28th, all Asbury 6 constituent metrics are green (positive). The “A6” model itself turned Positive on Oct 18th and the S&P 500 has since risen by as much as 8%.
As long as the Asbury 6 remains Positive, it will indicate favorable conditions for the S&P 500 to continue its mid-October advance and break major overhead resistance at 4054 to indicate a new major bullish trend change. A shift back to Negative, however, would indicate that the 2022 major downtrend has resumed and would warn of at least a retest of the 2022 lows near 3500.
How To Interpret The Asbury 6: Four or more metrics in one direction indicate a Tactical bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding equities exposure to portfolios.
Asbury Investment Management (AIM): Our Latest Video
We Protect What You Have Spent A Lifetime Building
Here is our November 28th Video Review, which explains how we have recently utilized our data-driven models to professionally manage client portfolios. Our focus is on making sure your nest egg is secure and protected so you can focus on the more important things in life.
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Disclaimer: This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.