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US Stock Market At A Tactical Decision Point

The benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) finished Friday’s session at 3895, up 56 points or 1.5% for the week after declining by 927 points or 19.4% in 2022.  SPX remains in the midst of a year-long major downtrend.

Chart 1 below shows that SPX will begin next week just below primary Tactical resistance at 3904 to 3907.  This is an important Tactical decision point for the market from which the current 2022 major decline should resume — IF it’s still valid.

Chart 1

Table 1
below shows that the Asbury 6, our daily risk management model, is currently negative or bearish and has been since December 15th as four of its six constituent metrics are red or negative. 

As long as the “A6” model remains on a Negative status next week, we will expect overhead resistance near 3900 to contain the S&P 500 on the upside and for a new leg lower to begin from it.  A bullish shift in the Asbury 6, however, would be an early indication of a new major bullish trend change in the US broad market index.

Table 1: The Asbury 6 

More About The Asbury 6:  The Asbury 6, updated daily in our Research Center, is a combination of six diverse market metrics that were combined to look beyond the day-to-day, up-and-down noise of the stock market to determine its actual health — in much the same way as a doctor first checks the patient’s vital signs during an office visit.  It helps us to identify real, sustainable market advances or declines from computer-driven traps for investors. Four or more metrics in one direction indicate a Tactical bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding equities exposure to portfolios. 

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Disclaimer: This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

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