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Emerging Major Bullish Trend Change

In our previous January 22nd Stock Market Update & Asbury Investment Management Video entitled “US Market At A Strategic Decision Point. Opportunity Knocking?”, we pointed out the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) was testing major overhead resistance just below 4000, and that this was precisely where its 2022 major downtrend should resume if still valid.

However, we also stated that the Asbury 6, our Tactical risk management model, had turned back to Positive (bullish) as of January 11th and said this “suggested a monthly to quarterly buying opportunity in the US stock market and an opportunity to turn 2022’s 19% decline in the S&P 500 into a better buying opportunity”Since then, the S&P 500 has risen by 150 points or 5.7%.

The chart below shows the major bullish trend in the S&P 500 that the January 11th Positive shift in the Asbury 6 suggested was coming took place almost 2 weeks later on January 23rd.  That former overhead resistance, currently near 3950, now becomes major underlying support.  The emerging major bullish trend change in the US broad market index will remain valid above this support level.

S&P 500 daily since July 2022

Above the market, the next formidable overhead resistance is 4.6% above Friday’s close at 4325 and represents the August 2022 benchmark high.

Asbury Research subscribers can get more detail on our expectations for market direction for the rest of the 1st Quarter  — including the latest updates on our quantitative models — by logging into the Research Center.

The graphic below shows that the Asbury 6 is still positive through the end of last week.  As long as it remains Positive, the current rise in the S&P 500 is likely to continue.

The Asbury 6 Model through 02-03-2023

Should the “A6” turn negative, however, it would indicate market internals have become weak and would warn that the larger 2022 major market decline is resuming.

More About The Asbury 6:  The Asbury 6, updated daily in our Research Center, is a combination of six diverse market metrics that were combined to look beyond the day-to-day, up-and-down noise of the stock market to determine its actual health — in much the same way as a doctor first checks the patient’s vital signs during an office visit.  It helps us to identify real, sustainable market advances or declines from computer-driven traps for investors. Four or more metrics in one direction indicate a Tactical bias. The dates in each cell indicate when each individual constituent turned either positive (green) or negative (red). When all Asbury 6 are positive, market internals are the most conducive to adding equities exposure to portfolios. 

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Disclaimer: This is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be a solicitation to buy or sell securities. The performance indicated from back-testing or historical track record may not be typical of future performance. No inferences may be made and no guarantees of profitability are being stated by Asbury Research LLC. The risk of loss trading in financial assets can be substantial. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.

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