Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL)’s recent breakdown from 2 months of investor indecision indicates an important top is in place at the Jun 3rd high and targets an additional 13% decline to $291.00 per share.  This is an Asbury Momentum idea.

Analysis and Rationale

Tyler Technologies, Inc. (TYL) provides integrated information management solutions and services for the public sector in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Enterprise Software; and Appraisal and Tax. It offers financial management solutions, including modular fund accounting systems for government agencies or not-for-profit entities; utility billing systems for the billing and collection of metered and non-metered services; products to automate city and county functions, such as municipal courts, parking tickets, equipment and project costing, animal and business licenses, permits and inspections, code enforcement, citizen complaint tracking, ambulance billing, fleet maintenance, and cemetery records management; and student information and transportation solutions for K-12 schools.  The company has a strategic collaboration agreement with Amazon Web Services for cloud hosting services. The company was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Plano, Texas.

Chart 1 below plots TYL daily since March, highlighting (in red) its Aug 10th breakdown from 2 months of sideways investor indecision.  This breakdown, which indicates an important top is in place at the Jun 3rd high, targets an additional 13% decline to $291.00 per share that will remain valid as long as the lower boundary of the indecision area, currently at $349.64, loosely contains price on the upside as overhead resistance.

Chart 1

Table 1 below shows that, considering the aforementioned downside target and a protective stop placed above the $346.90 area, a short entry price of $334.14 would provide a 1:3.4 risk/reward ratio (risking $1.00 to make $3.40) with an initial risk of 3.8%.

Table 1


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