Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

We removed our November 10th positive bias in the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) this morning for a 2% outright gain while simultaneously outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 2%.

Analysis and Rationale

In our Nov 10th report, Homebuilders, Commodities ETFs Poised For Strength, Relative Outperformance, we said that the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) was displaying favorable quantitative and technical characteristics for upcoming outright strength and relative outperformance versus the US broad market.

More recently, in Monday’s (Nov 29th) Keys To This Week for Sectors & Industry Groups, we said:

“(XHB’s) monthly trend of asset expansion is currently being tested.  As long as it remains intact, the current rise in XHB is likely to remain intact and to resume.  A new trend of monthly contraction in these assets, however, would suggest that a Tactical peak is in place at the Nov 19th high and that more weakness is likely.”

The red highlights in the lower panel of Chart 1 below, an updated version of the one from Monday’s report, shows that a new trend of monthly contraction began in XHB on Friday, Nov 26th, and carried into Monday’s session. 

Chart 1

This indicates a loss of Tactical conviction that Homebuilders will continue to appreciate in value.  Thus, we exited our Nov 10th positive bias on this industry group.