Conclusion, Investment Implications, Strategy

We exited our January 3rd long idea in the SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF (XAR) today, as shown in our Sector & ETF Ideas, for a 9% outright gain while outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) by 4%.  

Analysis and Rationale

The chart below plots XAR daily since Q4 2022 in the upper panel with a corresponding chart of the ETF’s daily total net assets and their 21-day moving average in the lower panel.  We use the 21-day moving average to indicate the monthly (our Tactical time frame) trend of asset expansion or contraction.

XAR daily since October 2022 and its relative performance vs. the S&P 500